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Estimating persistence in Canadian unemployment: evidence from a Bayesian ARFIMA

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  • O. Mikhail
  • C. J. Eberwein
  • J. Handa

Abstract

The degree of persistence in aggregate Canadian unemployment is estimated within a Bayesian ARFIMA class of models. The results conclude that unemployment exhibits persistence in the short and intermediate run. The evidence of persistence is stronger than previously reported by Koustas and Veloce (1996). This persistence cast a vital implication regarding disinflation policies, Based on the unemployment rate, these policies will prove very costly in terms of lost output and - if implemented - they considerably lengthen recessions.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500427023
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 15 ()
Pages: 1809-1819

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:15:p:1809-1819

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References

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  1. Lucrezia Reichlin & Peter Rappoport, 1989. "Segmented trends and non-stationary time series," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10169, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
  3. Min, C.K. & Zellner, A., 1992. ""Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Methods for Combining Models and Forecasts with Applications to Forecasting International Growth Rates"," Papers 90-92-23, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  4. Poirier, Dale J., 1997. "Comparing and choosing between two models with a third model in the background," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 139-151, June.
  5. Osiewalski, J. & Steel, M., 1990. "Robust Bayesian Inference In Elliptical Regression Models," Papers 9032, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  6. Gary Koop & Eduardo Ley & Jacek Osiewalski & Mark F.J. Steel, 1995. "Bayesian Analysis of Long Memory and Persistence using ARFIMA Models," Econometrics 9505001, EconWPA, revised 11 Jul 1995.
  7. Koustas, Z. & Veloce, W., 1994. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Canada: An Approach Based on Long-Memory Time Series Models," Working Papers 1994-5, Brock University, Department of Economics.
  8. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139.
  9. Ossama Mikhail & Curtis Eberwein & Jagdish Handa, 2005. "Testing for persistence in aggregate and sectoral Canadian unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 893-898.
  10. Luis Gil-Alana, 2001. "The persistence of unemployment in the USA and Europe in terms of fractionally ARIMA models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1263-1269.
  11. Sang-Kuck Chung, 2000. "Asymptotics of trend stationary fractionally integrated ARMA models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(12), pages 1509-1514.
  12. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  13. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  14. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Curi, Andréa Zaitune & Menezes Filho, N. A., 2006. "A Relação entre o Desempenho Escolar e os Salários no Brasil," Insper Working Papers wpe_51, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.

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