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Estimating persistence in Canadian unemployment: evidence from a Bayesian ARFIMA

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  • O. Mikhail
  • C. J. Eberwein
  • J. Handa

Abstract

The degree of persistence in aggregate Canadian unemployment is estimated within a Bayesian ARFIMA class of models. The results conclude that unemployment exhibits persistence in the short and intermediate run. The evidence of persistence is stronger than previously reported by Koustas and Veloce (1996). This persistence cast a vital implication regarding disinflation policies, Based on the unemployment rate, these policies will prove very costly in terms of lost output and - if implemented - they considerably lengthen recessions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 15 ()
Pages: 1809-1819

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:15:p:1809-1819

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  1. Luis Gil-Alana, 2001. "The persistence of unemployment in the USA and Europe in terms of fractionally ARIMA models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1263-1269.
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  6. Koop, Gary & Ley, Eduardo & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1997. "Bayesian analysis of long memory and persistence using ARFIMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 149-169.
  7. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  8. Ossama Mikhail & Curtis Eberwein & Jagdish Handa, 2005. "Testing for persistence in aggregate and sectoral Canadian unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 893-898.
  9. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
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  13. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139, Octomber.
  14. Erhard Reschenhofer & Benedikt M. Pötscher & Michael A. Hauser, 1999. "Measuring persistence in aggregate output: ARMA models, fractionally integrated ARMA models and nonparametric procedures," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 243-269.
  15. Lucrezia Reichlin & Peter Rappoport, 1989. "Segmented trends and non-stationary time series," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10169, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  16. Koustas, Z. & Veloce, W., 1994. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Canada: An Approach Based on Long-Memory Time Series Models," Working Papers 1994-5, Brock University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Andréa Zaitune Curi & Naércio Aquino Menezes-Filho, 2005. "A Relação Entre O Desempenho Escolar E Os Salários No Brasil," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 158, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  2. Maggie E.C. Jones & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Michal Ksawery Popiel, 2014. "A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support," Working Papers 1326, Queen's University, Department of Economics.

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