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Long-memory inflation uncertainty: evidence from the term structure of interest rates

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Author Info

  • David K. Backus
  • Stanley E. Zin

Abstract

We use a fractional difference model to reconcile two features of yields on US government bonds with modem asset pricing theory: the persistence of the short rate and variability of the long end of the yield curve. We suggest that this process might arise from the response of the heterogeneous agents to the changes in monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (1993)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 681-708

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpr:y:1993:p:681-708

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Keywords: Interest rates;

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References

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  1. Campbell, John, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," Scholarly Articles 3122544, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  4. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Stanley E. Zin, 1986. "Risk Premiums in the Term Structure : Evidence from Artificial Economies," Working Papers 665, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  5. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 1989. "The Sources and Nature of Long-term Memory in the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 2951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 475-511, August.
  7. Shea, Gary S, 1991. "Uncertainty and Implied Variance Bounds in Long-Memory Models of the Interest Rate Term Structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 287-312.
  8. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. " Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-29, December.
  9. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  12. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
  13. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1982. "An Equilibrium Model of Bond Pricing and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 301-329, September.
  14. Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March.
  15. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
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