IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/emu/wpaper/15-50.pdf.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Point Optimal Invariant Tests of a Unit Root in Models with Structural Change

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Balcilar

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus)

Abstract

This study proposes tests for the null hypothesis of a unit root against shifting trend stationary alternatives. In particular, models with structural change in the form of level or trend shifts are studied. Roots local-to-unity are addressed in models with structural change and asymptotic power functions of the tests are derived using local-to-unity asymptotic framework. These tests have good power properties against shifting trend stationary alternatives. Tests in the presence of multiple shifts are also examined. The asymptotic distributions of the tests are derived under exogenous and endogenous shift point assumptions. The asymptotic and finite sample percentiles of the tests are tabulated using Monte Carlo integration. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that tests have good power and size properties against various alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar, 2007. "Point Optimal Invariant Tests of a Unit Root in Models with Structural Change," Working Papers 15-50, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-50.pdf
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.economics.emu.edu.tr/RePEc/emu/wpaper/15-50.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2007
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Saikkonen, Pentti & Luukkonen, Ritva, 1993. "Point Optimal Tests for Testing the Order of Differencing in ARIMA Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 343-362, June.
    5. Park, Joon Y. & Sung, Jaewhan, 1994. "Testing for Unit Roots in Models with Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 917-936, December.
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    7. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    9. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    10. Stock, James H., 1994. "Deciding between I(1) and I(0)," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 105-131, July.
    11. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    12. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    13. Dufour, Jean-Marie & King, Maxwell L., 1991. "Optimal invariant tests for the autocorrelation coefficient in linear regressions with stationary or nonstationary AR(1) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 115-143, January.
    14. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
    3. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    4. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    5. Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2006. "Unit Root Testing," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 4, pages 41-56, Springer.
    6. Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro & García, Ana, 2003. "Range unit root tests," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws031126, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Norman J. Morin & John M. Roberts, 1999. "Is hysteresis important for U.S. unemployment?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0040, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    9. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    10. Roberto Martínez-Espiñeira, 2007. "An Estimation of Residential Water Demand Using Co-Integration and Error Correction Techniques," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 161-184, May.
    11. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    12. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    13. Fan, Yanqin & Gençay, Ramazan, 2010. "Unit Root Tests With Wavelets," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(5), pages 1305-1331, October.
    14. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Laura Mayoral, 2006. "Further Evidence on the Statistical Properties of Real GNP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 901-920, December.
    16. Changli He & Rickard Sandberg, 2006. "Dickey–Fuller Type of Tests against Nonlinear Dynamic Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 835-861, December.
    17. Alexeev, Vitali & Maynard, Alex, 2012. "Localized level crossing random walk test robust to the presence of structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3322-3344.
    18. Hayashi, Naotsugu, 2005. "Structural changes and unit roots in Japan's macroeconomic time series: is real business cycle theory supported?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 239-259, April.
    19. Verma, R. & Wilson, E.J., 2005. "Savings, Investment, Foreign Inflows and Economic Growth of the Indian Economy 1950-2001," Economics Working Papers wp05-23, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    20. Sven Otto, 2021. "Unit root testing with slowly varying trends," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 85-106, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit roots; structural change; quasi-differencing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-50.pdf. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mehmet Balcilar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deemuty.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.