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Testing the null of stationarity in the presence of structural breaks for multiple time series

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  • Ahn

    (The Ohio State University)

  • Byung Chul

    (The Ohio State University)

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    Abstract

    This paper introduces various consistent tests for the null hypothesis of stationarity with possibly unknown multiple structural break points against the alternative of nonstationarity that can be applied to multiple as well as univariate time series. These tests can be applied to either partial or pure structural breaks. It is shown that tests for stationarity become divergent when structural breaks are ignored. We show that we can allow a variety of structural breaks for which limiting distributions are derived and tabulated. Finite sample properties are studied by simulation. We also consider multivariate testing strategy and univariate tests and find that multivariate tests are often more powerful than univariate tests.

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    File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/em/papers/9411/9411001.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9411001.

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    Length: 42 pages
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 1994
    Date of revision: 08 Nov 1994
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9411001

    Note: 42 pages, Tex file, ASCII-file.
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    Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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    References

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    1. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Kahn, James A. & Ogaki, Masao, 1992. "A consistent test for the null of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 7-11, May.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
    5. Phillips, P C B & Durlauf, S N, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 473-95, August.
    6. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:4:p:433-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Donald W.K. Andrews & Inpyo Lee & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Changepoint Tests for Normal Linear Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1016, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    9. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1990. "Testing for a Moving Average Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(04), pages 433-444, December.
    10. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
    11. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 359-368, February.
    13. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 811R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1987.
    14. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
    15. James H. Stock, 1992. "Deciding Between I(1) and I(0)," NBER Technical Working Papers 0121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Choi, In, 1994. "Residual-Based Tests for the Null of Stationarity with Applications to U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 720-746, August.
    17. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-43, January.
    18. Tsay, Ruey S, 1993. "Testing for Noninvertible Models with Applications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 225-33, April.
    19. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
    20. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-33, March.
    21. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    22. Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 932, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    Cited by:
    1. P. Indira Devi & K.R. Shanmugam & M.G. Jayasree, 2012. "Compensating Wages for Occupational Risks of Farm Workers in India," Working Papers 2012-071, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    2. D.K. Srivastava & K.R. Shanmugam, 2012. "Stationarity Test for Aggregate Outputs in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2012-072, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    3. Lee, Junsoo & Huang, Cliff J. & Shin, Yongcheol, 1997. "On stationary tests in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 165-172, August.

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