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What Causes Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?

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  • Marianne Baxter
  • Michael A. Kouparitsas

Abstract

This paper investigates the sources of terms of trade volatility, specifically addressing the relative importance of goods-price effects vs. country-price effects. For fuel exporters, most of the terms of trade variation stems from goods-price effects, as one would have expected, a priori. For commodity exporters, there is great dispersion in the importance of goods price effects vs. country price effects, and no overall generalization is possible. Exporters of manufactured goods face terms of trade variation that appears to be about equally due to goods-price effects and country-price effects.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7462.

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Date of creation: Jan 2000
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Publication status: published as Baxter, Marianne and Michael A. Kouparitsas. "What Can Account For Fluctuations In The Terms Of Trade?," International Finance, 2006, v9(1,Apr), 63-86.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7462

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  1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  6. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  7. Knetter, Michael M, 1993. "International Comparisons of Price-to-Market Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 473-86, June.
  8. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
  9. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," Research Working Paper 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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Cited by:
  1. Ferreira Filipe, Sara, 2012. "Equity order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 359-381.
  2. Christian Broda & Cedric Tille, 2003. "Coping with terms-of-trade shocks in developing countries," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Nov).
  3. Nishat Fatima, 2010. "Analysing the Terms of Trade Effect for Pakistan," Trade Working Papers 22828, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  4. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
  5. Patrick A. Imam & Eleonara Granziera & Norbert Funke, 2008. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 08/36, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Kiran Ijaz & Muhammad Zakaria & Bashir A. Fida, 2014. "Terms-of-Trade Volatility and Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 111-132, Jan-June.
  7. Cedric Tille, 2000. ""Beggar-thy-neighbor" or "beggar-thyself"? the income effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 112, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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