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The Timing and Magnitude of Exchange Rate Overshooting

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Author Info
Niklas J. Westelius () (Hunter College)
Mathias Hoffmann (University of Cologne)
Jens Sondergaard () (Johns Hopkins University, Department of International Economics (SAIS))

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Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that a monetary shock induces the exchange rate to over-shoot its long-run level. The estimated magnitude and timing of the overshooting, however, varies across studies. This paper generates delayed overshooting in a New Keynesian model of a small open economy by incorporating incomplete information about the true nature of the monetary shock. The framework allows for a sensitivity analysis of the overshooting result to underlying structural parameters. It is shown that policy objectives and measures of the economy?s sensitivity to exchange rate dynamic a¤ect the timing and magnitude of the overshooting in a predictable manner, suggesting a possible rationale for the cross-study variation of the delayed overshooting phenomenon.

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Paper provided by Hunter College: Department of Economics in its series Hunter College Department of Economics Working Papers with number 418.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:418

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate overshooting; Partial information; Learning.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005. "Noise trading and delayed exchange rate overshooting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 133-156, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2005. "Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle," Memorandum 26/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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