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Transmission of business cycle shocks between the US and the euro area

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Abstract

We analyze the transmission of structural shocks between the US and the euro area within a two-country VAR framework. For that purpose, we simultaneously identify cost-push, demand and monetary policy shocks for both countries using sign restrictions. Our results show that domestic shocks explain the largest share of the forecast error variances for GDP, consumer prices and the interest rate in both countries in the short run, whilst spillovers from the other country and global factors gain importance in the medium run. The strength of the shock transmission between the two countries is quite symmetric. Our approach to the identification of structural shocks allows us to construct confidence bands that account both for estimation and identification uncertainty. We find impulse responses to domestic shocks to be significant while spillovers across countries are insignificant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 145.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 21 Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:145

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Keywords: VAR; shock transmission; sign restrictions; Metropolis-Hastings; confidence intervals; bootstrap.;

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  1. Dees, S. & di Mauro, F. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  8. Gert Peersman, 2007. "The Relative Importance of Symmetric and Asymmetric Shocks: the Case of United Kingdom and Euro Area," Working Papers 136, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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  16. Canova, Fabio, 2003. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America," CEPR Discussion Papers 3963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
  2. Jason Jones & Nora Collins & Lauren Sribnick, 2012. "External Influences on Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 28-39, February.
  3. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2013. "Business cycles and economic crisis in Greece (1960–2011): A long run equilibrium analysis in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 804-816.

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