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Transmission of business cycle shocks between the US and the euro area

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Abstract

We analyze the transmission of structural shocks between the US and the euro area within a two-country VAR framework. For that purpose, we simultaneously identify cost-push, demand and monetary policy shocks for both countries using sign restrictions. Our results show that domestic shocks explain the largest share of the forecast error variances for GDP, consumer prices and the interest rate in both countries in the short run, whilst spillovers from the other country and global factors gain importance in the medium run. The strength of the shock transmission between the two countries is quite symmetric. Our approach to the identification of structural shocks allows us to construct confidence bands that account both for estimation and identification uncertainty. We find impulse responses to domestic shocks to be significant while spillovers across countries are insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Fenz & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Transmission of business cycle shocks between the US and the euro area," Working Papers 145, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:145
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    Cited by:

    1. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2013. "Business cycles and economic crisis in Greece (1960–2011): A long run equilibrium analysis in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 804-816.
    2. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2018. "Debt Crisis in Europe (2001-2015): A Network General Equilibrium GVAR approach," MPRA Paper 89998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Altınkeski, Buket Kırcı & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2022. "Financial stress transmission between the U.S. and the Euro Area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Hanisch, Max & Kempa, Bernd, 2017. "The international transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks: Evidence from a non-stationary dynamic factor model for the G7 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 70-88.
    5. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:150:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    7. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
    8. Jason Jones & Nora Collins & Lauren Sribnick, 2012. "External Influences on Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(1), pages 28-39, February.
    9. Civcir, İrfan & Ertac Varoglu, Dizem, 2019. "International transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 647-665.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR; shock transmission; sign restrictions; Metropolis-Hastings; confidence intervals; bootstrap.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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