IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tse/wpaper/31229.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When is Nonfundamentalness in SVARs A Real Problem?

Author

Listed:
  • Beaudry, Paul
  • Fève, Patrick
  • Guay, Alain
  • Portier, Franck

Abstract

Identification of structural shocks can be subject to nonfundamentalness, as the econometrician may have an information set smaller than the economic agents´i one. How serious is that problem from a quantitative point of view? In this work we propose a simple diagnosis statistics for the quantitative importance of nonfundamentalness in structural VARs. The diagnosis is of interest as nonfundamentalness is not an either/or question, but is a quantitative issue which can be more or less severe. Using our preferred strategy for identifying news shocks, we find that nonfundamentalness is quantitatively unimportant and that news shocks continue to generate significant business cycle type fluctuations when adjust the estimating procedure to take into account the potential nonfundamentalness issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Beaudry, Paul & Fève, Patrick & Guay, Alain & Portier, Franck, 2016. "When is Nonfundamentalness in SVARs A Real Problem?," TSE Working Papers 16-738, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:31229
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/TSE/documents/doc/wp/2016/wp_tse_738.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.
    3. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2016. "VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 119, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    4. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
    5. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    6. Hamidi Sahneh, Mehdi, 2015. "Are the shocks obtained from SVAR fundamental?," MPRA Paper 65126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bin Chen & Jinho Choi & Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2017. "Testing for fundamental vector moving average representations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 149-180, March.
    8. Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-678, May.
    9. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-652, June.
    10. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1319-1347, October.
    11. Paul Beaudry & Patrick Fève & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2015. "When is Nonfundamentalness in VARs a Real Problem? An Application to News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 21466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Soccorsi, Stefano, 2016. "Measuring nonfundamentalness for structural VARs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 86-101.
    13. Fabio Canova & Mehdi Hamidi Sahneh, 2018. "Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Nonfundamentalness," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1069-1093.
    14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    15. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    16. Eric R. Sims, 2012. "News, Non-Invertibility, and Structural VARs," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 81-135, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    17. Karel Mertens & MortenO. Ravn, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 393-413, May.
    18. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "VAR analysis, nonfundamental representations, blaschke matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 307-325, July.
    19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
    21. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    22. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-136.
    23. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, December.
    24. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    25. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575.
    26. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2013. "Recursive Models of Dynamic Linear Economies," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10141.
    27. Paul Beaudry & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2011. "Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational?," NBER Working Papers 17651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bolboaca Maria & Fischer Sarah, 2021. "Unraveling News: Reconciling Conflicting Evidence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 695-743, June.
    2. Andrea Gazzani, 2020. "News and noise bubbles in the housing market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 46-72, April.
    3. Fève, Patrick & Beaudry, Paul & Collard, Fabrice & Guay, Alain & Portier, Franck, 2022. "Dynamic Identification in VARs," TSE Working Papers 22-1384, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Ascari, Guido & Beck-Friis, Peder & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2023. "Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It’s all in the monetary-fiscal mix," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Di Casola, Paola & Sichlimiris, Spyridon, 2018. "Towards Technology-News-Driven Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 360, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Lippi, Marco & Sala, Luca, 2020. "Common Component Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 15529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Angelini, Giovanni & Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Under the same (Chole)sky: DNK models, timing restrictions and recursive identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2017. "Do Misperceptions about Demand Matter? Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 17.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    9. Bhattarai, Keshab & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Yang, Bo, 2021. "Are global spillovers complementary or competitive? Need for international policy coordination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Sugaipov, Deni, 2022. "Estimating the impact of terms of trade news shocks on the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 66, pages 39-67.
    11. Tiziana Assenza & Fabrice Collard & Patrick Fève & Stefanie Huber, 2024. "From Buzz to Bust: How Fake News Shapes the Business Cycle," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 287, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    12. Kang, Jihye & Kim, Soyoung, 2022. "Government spending news and surprise shocks: It’s the timing and persistence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2022. "Mind the Gap! Stylized Dynamic Facts and Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 104-135, October.
    14. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2023. "Are the effects of uncertainty shocks big or small?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Stephen Wright & Bo Yang, 2019. "Information, VARs and DSGE Models," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1619, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soccorsi, Stefano, 2016. "Measuring nonfundamentalness for structural VARs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 86-101.
    2. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    3. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2018. "Fundamentalness, Granger Causality and Aggregation," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 139, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    4. Paul Beaudry & Patrick Fève & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2015. "When is Nonfundamentalness in VARs a Real Problem? An Application to News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 21466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    6. Luca Sala & Luca Gambetti & Mario Forni, 2016. "VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models," 2016 Meeting Papers 260, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
    8. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Lippi, Marco & Sala, Luca, 2020. "Common Component Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 15529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-136.
    10. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, May.
    11. Iskrev, Nikolay, 2019. "On the sources of information about latent variables in DSGE models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 318-332.
    12. Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2017. "Evidence on News Shocks under Information Deficiency," MPRA Paper 80850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2017. "News, Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations (No News is Good News)," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 132, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    15. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Is There A Single Shock That Drives The Majority Of Business Cycle Fluctuations?," Working Papers 1906, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    16. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2017. "Noise Bubbles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1940-1976, September.
    17. Andrea Gazzani, 2020. "News and noise bubbles in the housing market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 46-72, April.
    18. Nikolay Iskrev, 2018. "Are asset price data informative about news shocks? A DSGE perspective," Working Papers REM 2018/33, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Patrick Fève & Alain Guay, 2019. "Sentiments in SVARs," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 877-896.
    20. Fabio Canova & Mehdi Hamidi Sahneh, 2018. "Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Nonfundamentalness," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1069-1093.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-Fundamentalness; Business Cycles; SVARs; News;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:31229. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tsetofr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.