Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this book chapter or follow this series

Labor-Market Polarization Over the Business Cycle

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29

Contents:

Author Info

  • Christopher L. Foote
  • Richard W. Ryan

Abstract

During the last few decades, labor markets in advanced economies have become “polarized” as relative labor demand grows for high- and low-skill workers while it declines for middle-skill workers. This paper explores how polarization has interacted with the U.S. business cycle since the late 1970s. Consistent with previous work, the authors find that recessions are strongly synchronized across workers with different skills. Even high-skill workers favored by polarization suffer during recessions; this is particularly true during the last two downturns. Additionally, there is no evidence that polarization is driving the recent drop in the job-finding rate that has caused an adverse shift in the Beveridge curve. With this synchronization in mind, the authors then investigate the labor-market transitions of unemployed workers during recessions. When job-finding rates fall in recessions, middle-skill workers appear no more apt to leave the labor force or take low- or high-skill jobs than they are during booms. All in all, the results imply that current distress in the U.S. labor market extends far beyond middle-skill workers, and that recessions in general do not induce reallocation of middle-skill workers to jobs with better long-term outlooks.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c13427.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

as in new window

This chapter was published in:
This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 13427.

Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13427

Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2009. "The Growth of Low Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 15150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-83, June.
  4. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2009. "The establishment-level behavior of vacancies and hiring," Working Papers 09-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Peter B. Meyer & Anastasiya M. Osborne, 2005. "Proposed Category System for 1960-2000 Census Occupations," Working Papers, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 383, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  6. Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross job creation, gross job destruction and employment reallocation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 91-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-22, June.
  8. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Slow recoveries: A structural interpretation," Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra 1317, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  9. Yoonsoo Lee & Toshihiko Mukoyama, 2008. "Entry, exit and plant-level dynamics over the business cycle," Working Paper 0718, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2006. "The cyclical upgrading of labor and on-the-job search," Labour Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 459-477, August.
  11. Guido Matias Cortes, 2012. "Where Have the Routine Workers Gone? A Study of Polarization Using Panel Data," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series, Economics, The University of Manchester 1224, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  12. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Gross Job Creation and Destruction: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 123-186 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2014. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment," CESifo Working Paper Series 4563, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. Rui Castro & Daniele Coen-Pirani, 2008. "WHY HAVE AGGREGATE SKILLED HOURS BECOME SO CYCLICAL SINCE THE MID-1980s?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 135-185, 02.
  15. Charles A. Fleischman & John M. Roberts, 2011. "From many series, one cycle: improved estimates of the business cycle from a multivariate unobserved components model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2011-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Murat Tasci, 2012. "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in the Long Run: Unemployment Flows and the Natural Rate," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum 1233, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  17. Robert E. Hall, 1991. "Labor Demand, Labor Supply, and Employment Volatility," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 17-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Marianna Kudlyak & Felipe Schwartzman, 2012. "Accounting for unemployment in the Great Recession : nonparticipation matters," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 12-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  19. Christopher Reicher, 2011. "The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation," Kiel Working Papers 1720, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  20. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  21. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2012. "The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," NBER Working Papers 18334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13427. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.