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The Great Moderation: Inventories, Shocks or Monetary Policy?

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  • Marcel Förster

    ()
    (University of Giessen)

Abstract

This paper presents a New Keynesian DSGE model with inventory holding firms. The model distinguishes between goods and materials, for both production as well as for inventories. The more detailed treatment of inventory holdings offers new insights into the determinants of business cycles before and during the Great Moderation. Via Bayesian estimation we determine the distributions of the parameters for U.S. data for two subsamples. Our results show that impulse responses change significantly in terms of magnitude and persistence over time. Shocks in the labor market have gained importance since the Great Moderation and they explain the volatility of many variables. We reject the hypothesis of better inventory management and improved monetary policy as explanations for the Great Moderation. Instead, labor supply developments and changes in cost associated with capital play a key role for the reduced fluctuations.

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File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/48-2013_foerster.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201348.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201348

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Keywords: Inventories; Great Moderation; Bayesian Estimation; DSGE model; Business Cycles;

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References

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  1. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2008. "Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 173-191.
  2. JONATHAN McCARTHY & EGON ZAKRAJSEK, 2007. "Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 591-613, 03.
  3. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2004. "Modeling inventories over the business cycle," Working Papers 04-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, . "Explaining the great moderation: it is not the shocks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6413, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 14171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  7. Wen, Yi, 2002. "Understanding the Inventory Cycle," Working Papers 02-04, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  8. Thomas A. Lubik & Wing Leong Teo, 2009. "Inventories and Optimal Monetary Policy," School of Economics Working Papers 2009-33, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari & Mark Gertler, 2007. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," 2007 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  12. repec:mar:magkse:201123 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2009. "Investment Shocks and the Comovement Problem," Carleton Economic Papers 09-09, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 09 Aug 2010.
  14. Teo, Wing Leong, 2011. "Inventories and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1719-1748.
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