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Inventories and Optimal Monetary Policy

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  • Thomas A. Lubik

    ()

  • Wing Leong Teo

    ()

Abstract

We introduce inventories into a standard New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to study the effect on the design of optimal monetary policy. The possibility of inventory investment changes the transmission mechanism in the model by decoupling production from final consumption. This allows for a higher degree of consumption smoothing since firms can add excess production to their inventory holdings. We consider both Ramsey optimal monetary policy and a monetary policy that maximizes consumer welfare over a set of simple interest rate feedback rules. We find that in contrast to a model without inventories, Ramsey-optimal monetary policy in a model with inventories deviates from complete inflation stabilization. In the standard model, nominal price rigidity is a deadweight loss on the economy, which an optimizing policymaker attempts to remove. With inventories, a planner can reduce consumption volatility and raise welfare by accumulating inventories and letting prices change as an equilibrating mechanism. We find also find that the application of simple rules comes very close to replicating Ramsey optimal outcomes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2010-07.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2010-07

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  1. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April.
  2. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2004. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Peter N. Ireland, 2002. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 536, Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 2963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Wen, Yi, 2002. "Understanding the Inventory Cycle," Working Papers 02-04, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  6. Fisher, Jonas D M & Hornstein, Andreas, 2000. "(S, s) Inventory Policies in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 117-45, January.
  7. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280.
  8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  9. Aubhik Khan & Julie K. Thomas, 2003. "Inventories and the business cycle: an equilibrium analysis of (S,s) policies," Staff Report 329, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Kenneth D. West, 1985. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quardractic Inventory Model," NBER Working Papers 1581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2010. "Inventories and real rigidities in New Keynesian business cycle models," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-281, June.
  12. Mark Bils & James A. Kahn, 1999. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Thomas A. Lubik & Wing Leong Teo, 2010. "Inventories, Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," CAMA Working Papers 2010-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  14. Bartholomew Moore & Louis J Maccini & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "The Interest Rate Learning and Inventory Investment," Economics Working Paper Archive 512, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Apr 2004.
  15. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 825-860, October.
  16. Martin Boileau & Marc-Andre Letendre, 2011. "Inventories, sticky prices, and the persistence of output and inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(10), pages 1161-1174.
  17. Chang, Yongsung & Hornstein, Andreas & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel, 2009. "On the employment effects of productivity shocks: The role of inventories, demand elasticity, and sticky prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 328-343, April.
  18. Louis J. Maccini & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Inventories, Fluctuations and Business Cycles. Working paper #4," NCER Working Paper Series 4, National Centre for Econometric Research.
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    • Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923 Elsevier.
  20. Jung, YongSeung & Yun, Tack, 2005. "Monetary Policy Shocks, Inventory Dynamics, and Price-Setting Behavior," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3sf4q6nn, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  21. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 11523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
  23. Aubhik Khan, 2003. "The role of inventories in the business cycle," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 38-45.
  24. David Lopez-Salido & Andrew T. Levin, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Endogenous Capital Accumulation," 2004 Meeting Papers 826, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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Cited by:
  1. Lubik, Thomas A. & Teo, Wing Leong, 2012. "Inventories, inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 327-346.
  2. Marcel Förster, 2013. "The Great Moderation: Inventories, Shocks or Monetary Policy?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201348, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  3. Teo, Wing Leong, 2011. "Inventories and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1719-1748.
  4. repec:mar:magkse:201123 is not listed on IDEAS

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