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Inventories, Fluctuations and Business Cycles. Working paper #4

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Author Info
Louis J. Maccini
Adrian Pagan (National Centre for Econometric Research)

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Abstract

The paper looks at the role of inventories in U.S. business cycles and fluctuations. It concentrates upon the goods producing sector and constructs a model that features both input and output inventories. A range of shocks are present in the model, including sales, technology and inventory cost shocks. It is found that the presence of inventories does not change the average business cycle characteristics in the U.S. very much. The model is also used to examine whether new techniques for inventory control might have been an important contributing factor to the decline in the volatility of US GDP growth. It is found that these would have had little impact upon the level of volatility.

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Paper provided by National Centre for Econometric Research in its series NCER Working Paper Series with number 4.

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Date of creation: 15 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2006-4

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  1. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  2. Mark Bils & James A. Kahn, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Valerie A. Ramey & Kenneth D. West, 1997. "Inventories," NBER Working Papers 6315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202. [Downloadable!]
  5. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2004. "Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 10384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Humphreys, Brad R. & Maccini, Louis J. & Schuh, Scott, 2001. "Input and output inventories," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 347-375, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajsek, 2002. "Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?," Staff Reports 156, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Duffy, William J & Lewis, Kenneth A, 1975. "The Cyclic Properties of the Production-Inventory Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 499-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2006. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," NBER Working Papers 11946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Engel, J. & Haugh, D. & Pagan, A., 2005. "Some methods for assessing the need for non-linear models in business cycle analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 651-662. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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