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Investment shocks and the comovement problem

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  • Khan, Hashmat
  • Tsoukalas, John

Abstract

Recent work based on sticky price-wage estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models suggests investment shocks are the most important drivers of post-World War II US business cycles. Consumption, however, typically falls after an investment shock. This finding sits oddly with the observed business cycle comovement where consumption, along with hours-worked and investment, moves with economic activity. We show that this comovement problem is resolved in an estimated DSGE model when (i) the cost of capital utilization is specified in terms of increased depreciation of capital, as originally proposed by Greenwood et al. (1988) in a neoclassical setting, or (ii) there is no wealth effect on labor supply. The data, however, favors the first channel. Traditionally, the cost of utilization is specified in terms of forgone consumption following Christiano et al. (2005), who studied the effects of monetary policy shocks. The alternative specification we consider has two additional implications relative to the traditional one: (i) it has a substantially better fit with the data and (ii) the contribution of investment shocks to the variance of consumption is over three times larger. The contributions to output, investment, and hours, are also relatively higher, suggesting that these shocks may be quantitatively even more important than previous estimates based on the traditional specification.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 115-130

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:1:p:115-130

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Investment shocks Comovement Estimated DSGE models;

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References

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  1. Zheng Liu, 2009. "Sources of the Great Moderation: Shocks, Frictions, or Monetary Policy?," 2009 Meeting Papers 379, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Furlanetto, Francesco & Natvik, Gisle J. & Seneca, Martin, 2013. "Investment shocks and macroeconomic co-movement," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 208-216.
  2. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 101-121, January.
  3. Reza, Abeer, 2014. "Consumption response to investment shocks under financial frictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 50-53.
  4. Dey, Jaya, 2014. "Evaluating monetary policy under preferences with zero wealth effect: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 209-234.
  5. Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2011. "Modelling Comovements of Economic Time Series: A Selective Survey," CEIS Research Paper 215, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 26 Oct 2011.
  6. Görtz, Christoph & Tsoukalas, John, 2011. "News and Financial Intermediation in Aggregate Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 34113, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2011.
  7. Sohei Kaihatsu & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 224-242, April.
  8. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2009. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Carleton Economic Papers 09-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 22 May 2012.
  9. Fransesco Furlanetto & Martin Seneca, 2010. "New Perspectives on Depreciation Shocks as a Source of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Economics wp48, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  10. Naohisa Hirakata & Takushi Kurozumi, 2013. "The International Finance Multiplier in Business Cycle Fluctuations," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  11. Marcel Förster, 2013. "The Great Moderation: Inventories, Shocks or Monetary Policy?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201348, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  12. Furlanetto, Francesco & Seneca, Martin, 2014. "Investment shocks and consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 111-126.

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