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Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators For Barbados

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  • Gladys COTRIE
  • Roland CRAIGWELL
  • Alain MAURIN

Abstract

In recent times, a number of studies have focused on describing and modelling the business cycles of developing countries. However, to date very few of the small economies of the Caribbean have been the subject of this type of empirical application. In this regard, the current paper's contribution is to conduct an analysis of the cyclical fluctuations in Barbados, focusing on the prediction of such fluctuations. To this end, the authors construct coincident and leading indicators for the Barbadian economy, using the Stock and Watson (1989, 1991) method, as well as another alternative procedure (Mongardini and Saadi-Sedik, 2003) derived thereof. The results obtained show that the proposed indicators possess excellent properties and accurately reflect the reference cycle of the Barbadian economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:9:y:2009:i:2_12

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Related research

Keywords: Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators;

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References

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  1. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Michela Nardo & Michaela Saisana & Andrea Saltelli & Stefano Tarantola & Anders Hoffman & Enrico Giovannini, 2005. "Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2005/3, OECD Publishing.
  5. Cotrie, Gladys & Craigwell, Roland & Maurin, Alain, 2009. "A review of leading composite indicators: making a case for their use in Caribbean economies," MPRA Paper 33390, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
  6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
  7. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Puah, Chin-Hong & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Forecasting malaysian business cycle movement: empirical evidence from composite leading indicator," MPRA Paper 36649, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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