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A review of leading composite indicators: making a case for their use in Caribbean economies

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  • Cotrie, Gladys
  • Craigwell, Roland
  • Maurin, Alain

Abstract

In this article, three issues relating to leading composite indicators (LCI) are discussed: their importance, methods of estimation and uses by institutions worldwide. This discussion is utilised to provide lessons that could be learnt for the application of these indicators to the countries of the Caribbean. The principal message of this material is that in this geographical area, LCI would be important tools for economic decision makers to employ to forecast the future state of the economy. This option should be pursued vigorously by putting the necessary resources into developing the high frequency real sector data that is required for a successful application of the LCI methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Cotrie, Gladys & Craigwell, Roland & Maurin, Alain, 2009. "A review of leading composite indicators: making a case for their use in Caribbean economies," MPRA Paper 33390, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33390
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33390/1/MPRA_paper_33390.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Gladys COTRIE & Roland CRAIGWELL & Alain MAURIN, 2009. "Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators For Barbados," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
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    16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 95-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gladys COTRIE & Roland CRAIGWELL & Alain MAURIN, 2009. "Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators For Barbados," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Leading indicators;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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