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A review of leading composite indicators: making a case for their use in Caribbean economies


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  • Cotrie, Gladys
  • Craigwell, Roland
  • Maurin, Alain


In this article, three issues relating to leading composite indicators (LCI) are discussed: their importance, methods of estimation and uses by institutions worldwide. This discussion is utilised to provide lessons that could be learnt for the application of these indicators to the countries of the Caribbean. The principal message of this material is that in this geographical area, LCI would be important tools for economic decision makers to employ to forecast the future state of the economy. This option should be pursued vigorously by putting the necessary resources into developing the high frequency real sector data that is required for a successful application of the LCI methodology.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33390.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision: 2009
Publication status: Published in Journal of Applied Econometrics and International Development 2.9(2009): pp. 145-161
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33390

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Keywords: Business cycles; Leading indicators;

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  1. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
  2. Joannes Mongardini & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators," IMF Working Papers 03/170, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Yanjun Liu & Carl Gaudreault & Robert Lamy, . "New Concident, Leading and Recession Indexes for the Canadian Economy: An Application of the Stock and Watson Methodology," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2003-12, Department of Finance Canada.
  4. Vincent Bodart & Fati Shadman-Mehta, 2004. "Prévoir les retournements conjoncturels en Belgique : les nouveaux indicateurs de l’IRES," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 26, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hervé Péléraux & Eric Heyer, 2004. "Un indicateur de croissance infra-annuelle pour l'économie française," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1926, Sciences Po.
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Cited by:
  1. Gladys COTRIE & Roland CRAIGWELL & Alain MAURIN, 2009. "Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators For Barbados," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).


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