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Un indicateur de croissance infra-annuelle pour l'économie française

Author

Listed:
  • Éric Heyer
  • Hervé Péléraux

Abstract

This paper presents a new indicator for the French GDP growth, put forward by the Analysis and Forecast Department of the OFCE. This indicator is based on the estimation of an equation with the quarterly GDP rate of change as the dependent variable, business survey series and financial series as independent variables. These series include the business survey in the service sector which was not used until now since series were not sufficiently long. The lead of the service survey is long enough to forecast the GDP growth rate two quarters ahead. The same applies to the construction survey and financial variables. This is not the case for the industrial confidence index, which is a coincident series, and has to be predicted with an auxiliary equation. The running of the indicator over the last three years is assessed.

Suggested Citation

  • Éric Heyer & Hervé Péléraux, 2004. "Un indicateur de croissance infra-annuelle pour l'économie française," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 88(1), pages 203-218.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_088_0203
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François Bouton & Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 2002. "Conjonctures sectorielles et prévision à court terme de l'activité : l'apport de l'enquête de conjoncture dans les services," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 359(1), pages 35-68.
    2. Françoise Charpin, 2002. "Un indicateur de croissance à court terme de la zone euro," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 83(4), pages 229-242.
    3. Peter Grasmann & Filip Keereman, 2001. "An indicator-based short-term forecast for quarterly GDP in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 154, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Françoise Charpin, 2001. "Un indicateur de croissance à court terme aux États-Unis," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 171-189.
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    Cited by:

    1. Françoise Charpin & Catherine Mathieu, 2004. "Un indicateur de croissance à court terme au Royaume-Uni," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 89(2), pages 231-251.
    2. Catherine Mathieu & Françoise Charpin, 2004. "A new leading indicator of UK quarterly GDP growth," Working Papers hal-00972860, HAL.
    3. Françoise Charpin & Catherine Mathieu, 2004. "Un indicateur de croissance à court terme au Royaume-Uni," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01020087, HAL.
    4. Marie Bessec, 2010. "Etalonnages du taux de croissance du PIB français sur la base des enquêtes de conjoncture," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 77-99.
    5. Cotrie, Gladys & Craigwell, Roland & Maurin, Alain, 2009. "A review of leading composite indicators: making a case for their use in Caribbean economies," MPRA Paper 33390, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    6. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1782 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1932 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1782 is not listed on IDEAS
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    10. Françoise Charpin, 2005. "OFCE quaterly GDP growth indicators," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

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