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The Evolution of Employment and Unemployment in Australia

Author

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  • Jerome Fahrer

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Alexandra Heath

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper poses two questions: why did the equilibrium rate of unemployment rise so much in the 1970s, and why does unemployment increase rapidly during recessions, but decrease so slowly in the subequent recovery, i.e. why is unemployment persistent? We find that equilibrium unemployment rose because of the economy’s inability to adjust to the adverse shocks of the time; employment contracted in some sectors but did not expand sufficiently in others. In answer to the second question, we find that the sources of persistence are different for men and women. Male unemployment has been persistent because, following a recession, employment is created in female dominated sectors, rather than the male dominated sectors which experienced the greatest decline in employment. Female unemployment has been persistent because the growth in the demand for female labour has been matched by the growth in its supply. Finally, we find that recessions appear to have a permanent effect on the sectoral composition of the economy; i.e., recessions are periods of accelerated structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerome Fahrer & Alexandra Heath, 1992. "The Evolution of Employment and Unemployment in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9215, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp9215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ponomareva, Natalia & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2013. "Australian labor market dynamics across the ages," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 453-463.
    2. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & Guay Lim, 2005. "An Examination of Net Flows in the Australian Labour Market," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 25-42, March.
    3. Jeff Borland, 1996. "Labour Market Flows Data for Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 29(2), pages 225-235, April.
    4. Brian Silverstone & Bridget Daldy, 1993. "Recent Labour Market and Industrial Relations Experience in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 26(4), pages 17-22, October.
    5. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & G. C. Lim, 2004. "A Framework For Understanding Changes In The Unemployment Rate In A Flows Context: An Examination Net Flows In The Australian Labour Market," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 910, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Jeff Borland & Steven Kennedy, 1998. "Dimensions, Structure and History of Australian Unemployment," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Gareth D. Leeves, 1997. "Labour Market Gross Flows and Transition Rates 1980–1992," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 8(1), pages 110-127, June.
    8. Guy Debelle & Troy Swann, 1998. "Stylised Facts of the Australian Labour Market," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9804, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & Guay Lim, 2003. "Why are recessions as deep as they are? The behaviour over time of the outflow from unemployment: a new perspective," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 6(1), pages 37-64, March.
    10. Jerome Fahrer & Andrew Pease, 1993. "The Unemployment‐Vacancy Relationship in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 26(4), pages 43-57, October.
    11. Jeff Borland, 2009. "What Happens to the Australian Labour Market in Recessions?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(2), pages 232-242, June.
    12. Robert Dixon, 2001. "Australian Labour Force Data: How Representative is the ‘Population Represented by the Matched Sample’?," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 12(2), pages 303-330, December.
    13. Jerome Fahrer & Andrew Pease, 1993. "The Unemployment/Vacancy Relationship in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9305, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Natalia Ponomareva & Jeffrey Sheen, 2010. "Cyclical Flows in Australian Labour Markets," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(s1), pages 35-48, September.
    15. Anthony De Francesco, 1999. "The relationship between unemployment and vacancies in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 641-652.
    16. A. J. Phipps & J. R. Sheen, 1995. "Macroeconomic Policy and Employment Growth in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 28(1), pages 86-104, January.

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