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Optimal Time Interval Selection in Long-Run Correlation Estimation

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Author Info
Pedro H. Albuquerque (Texas A&M International University)

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Abstract

This paper presents an asymptotically optimal time interval selection criterion for the long-run correlation block estimator (Bartlett kernel estimator) based on the Newey-West and Andrews-Monahan approaches. An alignment criterion that enhances finite-sample performance is also proposed. The procedure offers an optimal yet unobtrusive alternative to the common practice in finance and economics of arbitrarily choosing time intervals or lags in correlation studies. A Monte Carlo experiment using parameters derived from Dow Jones returns data confirms that the procedures are MSE-superior to typical alternatives such as aggregation over arbitrary time intervals, parametric VAR estimation, and Newey-West covariance matrix estimation with automatic lag selection.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0511017.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 23 Nov 2005
Date of revision: 27 Nov 2005
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0511017

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 23
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Related research
Keywords: Long-Run Correlation Bartlett Lag Selection Time Interval Alignment Newey-West

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C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods

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  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-66, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Cochrane, John H. & Sbordone, Argia M., 1988. "Multivariate estimates of the permanent components of GNP and stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 255-296. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. McCallum, Bennett T., 1984. "On low-frequency estimates of long-run relationships in macroeconomics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-14, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  12. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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