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Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED

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  • Chanont Banternghansa
  • Michael W. McCracken

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence on the efficacy of forecast averaging using the ALFRED real-time database. We consider averages taken over a variety of different bivariate VAR models that are distinguished from one another based upon at least one of the following: which variables are used as predictors, the number of lags, using all available data or data after the Great Moderation, the observation window used to estimate the model parameters and construct averaging weights, and for forecast horizons greater than one, whether or not iterated- or direct-multistep methods are used. A variety of averaging methods are considered. Our results indicate that the benefits to model averaging relative to BIC-based model selection are highly dependent upon the class of models being averaged over. We provide a novel decomposition of the forecast improvements that allows us to determine which types of averaging methods and models were most (and least) useful in the averaging process.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2010-033.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2010-033

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Keywords: Economic forecasting ; Real-time data;

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  1. D''Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 6594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
  3. Andrew Levin & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 298, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Kapetanios, G. & Labhard, V. & Price, S., 2007. "Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation," Working Papers 07/15, Department of Economics, City University London.
  5. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2006. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  6. Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2009. "A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 331-355, 06.
  7. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Working Papers 2008-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  10. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Optimal Forecast Combination Under General Loss Functions and Forecast Error Distributions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt15r9t2q2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  11. Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Least-squares forecast averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 342-350, October.
  12. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2008. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Working Paper 2008/22, Norges Bank.
  13. Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
  14. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts Using a Large Realtime Dataset," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 468-479.
  15. Parantap Basu & William T. Gavin, 2011. "Negative correlation between stock and futures returns: an unexploited dedging opportunity?," Working Papers 2011-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Cited by:
  1. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
  2. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar, 2013. "Forecasting Aggregate Retail Sales: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 201312, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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