IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sek/jijoes/v9y2020i2p39-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of substitution changes in the Phillips curve in V4 countries over the course of economic cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Bozena Kaderabkova

    (University of Economics in Prague, Fakulty of Economics)

  • Emilie Jasova

    (University of Economics in Prague, Fakulty of Economics)

  • Robert Holman

    (Economic University in Prague)

Abstract

The aim of the article is to determine the nature and intensity of the slope of the Phillips curves (PCs) for the workers vulnerable to unemployment in the individual phases of the economic cycle between 2000 and 2016 in the Visegrad Group (V4). We use linear regressions to substitute the household deflator of unemployment. In order to avoid a reduction in the number of observations and to reduce the validity of the estimates, which is characteristic of the Break model, we modify the one-year model of the categorical variable phase of the cycle. The results obtained are compared with the findings of international authors. Throughout the monitored period, a statistically significant negative slope of the PC was found in all V4 countries, with the highest intensity in the Czech Republic and the lowest in Hungary. The extrapolation of the trend of the current development of the phases of the economic cycle indicates the growth of the statistically confirmed negative slope of the PC in the Czech Republic, its return to Slovakia, its origin in Hungary and the return of positive inclination in Poland.

Suggested Citation

  • Bozena Kaderabkova & Emilie Jasova & Robert Holman, 2020. "Analysis of substitution changes in the Phillips curve in V4 countries over the course of economic cycles," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 39-54, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:jijoes:v:9:y:2020:i:2:p:39-54
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iises.net/international-journal-of-economic-sciences/publication-detail-25690
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://iises.net/international-journal-of-economic-sciences/publication-detail-25690?download=3
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    2. John Cornwall, 1981. "Do We Need Separate Theories of Inflation and Unemployment?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 7(s1), pages 165-178, July.
    3. Robert Gordon, 1995. "Problems in the Measurement and Performance of Service-Sector Productivity in the United States," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Palle Andersen & Jacqueline Dwyer & David Gruen (ed.),Productivity and Growth, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. OECD & Elena Rusticelli, 2014. "Rescuing the Phillips curve: Making use of long-term unemployment in the measurement of the NAIRU," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2014(1), pages 109-127.
    5. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery," NBER Working Papers 19390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1999. "The High-Pressure U.S. Labor Market of the 1990s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 1-88.
    8. Dana Kloudová, 2016. "Does Using Nairu In The Production Function Influence Estimation Of Potential Output And Output Gap?," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 1-21, June.
    9. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    10. Wallich, Henry C, 1978. "Stabilization Goals: Balancing Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 159-164, May.
    11. James Tobin & Sergio Parrinello & Paolo Sylos Labini, 1999. "Supply Constraints on Employment and Output: NAIRU Versus Natural Rate," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Giancarlo Gandolfo & Ferruccio Marzano (ed.), Economic Theory and Social Justice, chapter 1, pages 35-62, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:526:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
    14. repec:fth:prinin:416 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Silvia Fabiani & Ricardo Mestre, 2004. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 311-341, May.
    16. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Fumitaka FURUOKA, 2014. "Does Hysteresis Exist in Unemployment? New Findings from Fourteen Regions of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(1), pages 59-78, February.
    18. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
    19. Lawrence Katz & Alan Krueger, 1999. "The High-pressure U.S. Labor Market of the 1990s," Working Papers 795, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    20. Gordana Marjanovic & Ljiljana Maksimovic & Nenad Stanisic, 2015. "Hysteresis and the NAIRU: The Case of Countries in Transition," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(5), pages 503-515.
    21. P. McAdam & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "The NAIRU Concept - Measurement uncertainties, hysteresis and economic policy role," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 136, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    22. Malcolm S. Cohen, 1969. "The Direct Effects of Federal Manpower Programs in Reducing Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 4(4), pages 491-507.
    23. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2013. "Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area: Love at Second Sight?," Working Papers 2013/07, Czech National Bank.
    24. Mark W. Watson, 2014. "Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 31-36, May.
    25. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2015:y:2015:i:5:id:526:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Klára Čermáková & Eduard Hromada, 2022. "Change in the Affordability of Owner-Occupied Housing in the Context of Rising Energy Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Dusan TRISKA, 2021. "TOWARDS THE CONSTRIBUTION OF ECONOMICS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ITS SCIENTIFIC NEIGHBORS. The case of a legal scholarship," International Journal of Economic Sciences, European Research Center, vol. 10(2), pages 141-155, December.
    3. Lucie Kurekova & Pavlina Hejdukova, 2021. "Multilevel research of migration with a focus on internal migration," International Journal of Economic Sciences, European Research Center, vol. 10(2), pages 87-103, December.
    4. KRULICKÝ Tomáš & FILHO Eduardo Aguiar Henrique & HROMADA Eduard & ČERMÁKOVÁ Klára, 2022. "The Effects of Homeownership on Wealth Distribution," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
    5. Ondřej Bednář & Andrea Čečrdlová & Božena Kadeřábková & Pavel Řežábek, 2022. "Energy Prices Impact on Inflationary Spiral," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bo?ena Kade?ábková & Emilie Ja?ová, 0000. "Phillips curve during the economic cycle in the Czech Republic and Poland in the years 2000 to 2016," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 11413218, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    2. Božena Kadeřábková & Emilie Jašová, 2011. "Analýza ukazatele NAIRU na sektorové úrovni [Analysis of the Indicator NAIRU on the Sector Level]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(4), pages 508-525.
    3. Bo?ena Kade?ábková & Emilie Ja?ová, 2021. "How the Czech government got the pandemic wrong," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 12513377, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    4. Emilie Jašová & Klára Čermáková & Božena Kadeřábková & Pavel Procházka, 2016. "Působení institucionálních faktorů na strukturální a cyklickou nezaměstnanost v zemích Visegrádské skupiny [Influence of Institutional Factors on Structural and Cyclical Unemployment in the Countri," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(1), pages 34-50.
    5. Emilie Jašová & Božena Kaderábková, 2012. "Comparing NAIRU and Economic Cycle from the Perspective of Labour Market in the Countries of the Visegrad Group," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 3-23.
    6. Bozena Kaderabkova, 2016. "Development of the economic cycle on labour market in the national economy and industry of the Czech Republi," Proceedings of Business and Management Conferences 4407037, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    7. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Klára ?ermáková & Emilie Ja?ová, 2019. "Analysis of the Negative and Positive Impact of Institutional Factors on Unemployment in Visegrad Countries," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 8(1), pages 20-34, June.
    9. Bazhal, Iurii, 2015. "Impact of Wage Policy on Economic Growth in Transitive Countries and New Interpretation of the Phillips Curve," MPRA Paper 67106, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2015.
    10. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2017. "Will US inflation awake from the dead? The role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 247-271.
    11. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2018. "Inflation in Europe after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 202-213.
    12. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Is the US Phillips curve stable? Evidence from Bayesian vector autoregressions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 287-314, January.
    13. Orlov, D. & Postnikov, E., 2022. "Phillips curve: Inflation and NAIRU in the Russian regions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 61-80.
    14. Emilie Jasova, 2014. "A Model for Estimation of NAIRU Extended by Demand Shocks and its Application to Business Cycle Analysis in the Labour Market in Hungary and Poland," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0401788, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    15. Emilie Jašová, 2009. "Similarities and Differences in Development of Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment and Economic Cycle in Selected Countries in Central Europe by 2008 [Podobnosti a rozdíly ve vývoji mír," Současná Evropa, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(1), pages 35-51.
    16. D'Agostino, Antonello & Mendicino, Caterina, 2014. "Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-varying Effects," MPRA Paper 53607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2018. "Financial Frictions, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 89429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
    19. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    20. Giraud, Gaël & Grasselli, Matheus, 2021. "Household debt: The missing link between inequality and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 901-927.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; unemployment rate by gender; age and education; phase of the economic cycle; countries of V4;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sek:jijoes:v:9:y:2020:i:2:p:39-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klara Cermakova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ijoes.iises.net/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.