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Forecasting output using oil prices: A cascaded artificial neural network approach

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  • Malik, Farooq
  • Nasereddin, Mahdi
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economics and Business.

    Volume (Year): 58 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 168-180

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:58:y:2006:i:2:p:168-180

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    1. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
    2. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
    3. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 5634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    5. Alan A. Carruth & Mark A. Hooker & Andrew J. Oswald, 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria And Input Prices: Theory And Evidence From The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 621-628, November.
    6. Keane, Michael P & Prasad, Eswar S, 1996. "The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes: A Sectoral Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 389-400, August.
    7. James L. Pierce & Jared J. Enzler, 1974. "The Effects of External Inflationary Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(1), pages 13-62.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 2001. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 537-73, May.
    9. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
    13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Robert S. Pindyck, 1980. "Energy Price Increases and Macroeconomic Policy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-20.
    15. Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    16. Loungani, Prakash, 1986. "Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 536-39, August.
    17. Lee, Kiseok & Ni, Shawn, 2002. "On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 823-852, May.
    18. Robert M. Solow, 1980. "What to Do (Macroeconomically) When OPEC Comes," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 249-267 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1995. "A Model Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Macroeconomics 9503004, EconWPA.
    20. Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Neural network forecasting of Canadian GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-69.
    21. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    22. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
    23. Hutchinson, James M & Lo, Andrew W & Poggio, Tomaso, 1994. " A Nonparametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities via Learning Networks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 851-89, July.
    24. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
    25. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1999. "Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Responses to Oil Price Changes," NBER Working Papers 7095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Daniel, Betty C., 1997. "International interdependence of national growth rates: A structural trends anakysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 73-96, September.
    27. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
    28. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    29. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Neural networks: Forecasting breakthrough or passing fad?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-3, April.
    30. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    31. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
    32. John Cooper, 1999. "Artificial neural networks versus multivariate statistics: An application from economics," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 909-921.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2012. "Crude oil price forecasting: Experimental evidence from wavelet decomposition and neural network modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 828-841.
    2. Koutroumanidis, Theodoros & Ioannou, Konstantinos & Arabatzis, Garyfallos, 2009. "Predicting fuelwood prices in Greece with the use of ARIMA models, artificial neural networks and a hybrid ARIMA-ANN model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3627-3634, September.

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