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Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

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  • Pesaran, M.H.
  • Pick, A.
  • Timmermann, A.

Abstract

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a first-order concern, i.e. in small samples and for long forecast horizons. Conversely, direct forecasts may dominate in the presence of dynamic model misspecification. Empirical analysis of the set of 170 variables studied by Marcellino, Stock and Watson (2006) shows that multivariate information, introduced through a parsimonious factor-augmented vector autoregression approach, improves forecasting performance for many variables, particularly at short horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Timmermann, A., 2009. "Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0901, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0901
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    2. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
    3. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1979. "The sampling distribution of forecasts from a first-order autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 241-261, February.
    4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    6. Ing, Ching-Kang, 2003. "Multistep Prediction In Autoregressive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 254-279, April.
    7. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
    8. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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    11. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
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    16. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lobanov, Mikhail (Лобанов, Михаил) & Zvezdvanovic-Lobanova, Jelena (Звезданович-Лобанова, Елена), 2017. "Specifics of Agricultural Policy in the Countries of Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe in 1990–2010s [Особенности Аграрной Политики В Странах Центрально- И Юго-Восточной Европы В 1990-2010-Х," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 150-173, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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