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Trade Synchronisation During Major Economic Crises

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  • Susanne Bärenthaler-Sieber

    (WIFO)

  • Sandra Bilek-Steindl

    (WIFO)

  • Christian Glocker

    (WIFO)

Abstract

In this paper we present a new long-term database on monthly export and import series for 23 economies during 1921-2010 and its first empirical application. Using these data, we analyse the synchronised decline in foreign trade during the recession 2008-09 in a historical perspective. We investigate the following two research questions: First, we compare the degree of synchronisation of trade flows among the past major economic crises. Second, we investigate the synchronisation of the speed of the recovery after these recessions. In order to answer these questions we use both, descriptive statistics (like rolling correlations) and turning-point oriented measures (Bry-Boschan routine, Markov switching model).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 449.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 13 May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2013:i:449

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Keywords: Synchronisation; Trade collapse; Turning Points; Economic History;

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  1. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 25, pages 219-265, 04.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2010. "The Synchronization of GDP Growth in the G7 during U.S. Recessions. Is this Time Different?," Economics working papers 2010-05, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  4. Sandra Bilek-Steindl, 2012. "On the Change in the Austrian Business Cycle," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-18.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle – Evidence and Causes," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  7. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "The great synchronization of international trade collapse," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 608-614.
  8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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