IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finmar/v38y2018icp1-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Politics and liquidity

Author

Listed:
  • Marshall, Ben R.
  • Nguyen, Hung T.
  • Nguyen, Nhut H.
  • Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat

Abstract

The equity market is more liquid under Democratic than Republican presidencies. This is apparent at the market level but is stronger in small, value stocks and in industries that are more sensitive to Democratic presidents. The effect is robust to different liquidity measures and time periods and is not solely driven by variation in the business cycle or macroeconomic variables. A number of factors that influence liquidity, including information asymmetry, volatility, and economic policy uncertainty, are all lower during Democratic presidencies. We also show that liquidity increases in the months following a Democratic president replacing a Republican president.

Suggested Citation

  • Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2018. "Politics and liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:38:y:2018:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2017.07.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386418116303081
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.finmar.2017.07.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hasbrouck, Joel, 2004. "Liquidity in the Futures Pits: Inferring Market Dynamics from Incomplete Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 305-326, June.
    2. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    3. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Chung, Kee H. & Zhang, Hao, 2014. "A simple approximation of intraday spreads using daily data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 94-120.
    5. Eitan Goldman & Jörg Rocholl & Jongil So, 2009. "Do Politically Connected Boards Affect Firm Value?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2331-2360, June.
    6. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Alexei V. Ovtchinnikov, 2010. "Corporate Political Contributions and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 687-724, April.
    7. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    8. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    9. Hutton, Irena & Jiang, Danling & Kumar, Alok, 2014. "Corporate Policies of Republican Managers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1279-1310, December.
    10. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    11. Alan S. Blinder & Mark W. Watson, 2016. "Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 1015-1045, April.
    12. Pedro Santa‐Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
    13. repec:oup:revfin:v:29:y:2016:i:12:p:3471-3518. is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    15. Shane A. Corwin & Paul Schultz, 2012. "A Simple Way to Estimate Bid‐Ask Spreads from Daily High and Low Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 719-760, April.
    16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    17. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    18. Joel Hasbrouck, 2009. "Trading Costs and Returns for U.S. Equities: Estimating Effective Costs from Daily Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1445-1477, June.
    19. Jawad M. Addoum & Alok Kumar, 2016. "Political Sentiment and Predictable Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(12), pages 3471-3518.
    20. Gider, Jasmin & Westheide, Christian, 2016. "Relative idiosyncratic volatility and the timing of corporate insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 312-334.
    21. Randi Næs & Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2011. "Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 139-176, February.
    22. Bonaparte, Yosef & Kumar, Alok, 2013. "Political activism, information costs, and stock market participation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 760-786.
    23. Di Giuli, Alberta & Kostovetsky, Leonard, 2014. "Are red or blue companies more likely to go green? Politics and corporate social responsibility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 158-180.
    24. Gao, Xiaohui & Ritter, Jay R., 2010. "The marketing of seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 33-52, July.
    25. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    26. Fernandes, Nuno & Ferreira, Miguel A., 2008. "Does international cross-listing improve the information environment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 216-244, May.
    27. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pham, Mia Hang, 2020. "In law we trust: Lawyer CEOs and stock liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Yaghoubi, Mona, 2021. "The Ramadan effect: A standalone anomaly or just a compensation for low liquidity?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    3. Nguyen, Hung T. & Pham, Mia Hang, 2021. "Air pollution and behavioral biases: Evidence from stock market anomalies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    4. Das, Kuntal K. & Yaghoubi, Mona, 2023. "Stock liquidity and firm-level political risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Adrian, Christofer & Garg, Mukesh & Viet Pham, Anh & Phang, Soon-Yeow & Truong, Cameron, 2022. "Policy and oversight of corporate political activities and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2).
    6. Thakerngkiat, Narongdech & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2023. "Does fear spur default risk?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 879-899.
    7. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Paritosh Chandra Sinha, 2021. "Attention to the Election-Economics-Politics (EEP) Nexus in the Indian Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 13(1), pages 7-32, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    2. Pham, Mia Hang, 2020. "In law we trust: Lawyer CEOs and stock liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2014. "The Empirical Analysis of Liquidity," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 8(4), pages 263-365, December.
    4. Li, Xiafei & Luo, Di, 2019. "Financial constraints, stock liquidity, and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    6. Jieun Lee, 2018. "Who Improves or Worsens Liquidity in the Korean Treasury Bond Market?," Working Papers 2018-3, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    7. Alexander Barinov, 2014. "Turnover: Liquidity or Uncertainty?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(10), pages 2478-2495, October.
    8. Stereńczak, Szymon & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2020. "Is there an illiquidity premium in frontier markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    9. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    10. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
    11. Thomas Johann & Erik Theissen, 2013. "Liquidity measures," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 10, pages 238-255, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Liu, Weimin & Luo, Di & Zhao, Huainan, 2016. "Transaction costs, liquidity risk, and the CCAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 126-145.
    13. Ding, Xiaoya (Sara) & Ni, Yang & Zhong, Ligang, 2016. "Free float and market liquidity around the world," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 236-257.
    14. Kang, Moonsoo & Khaksari, S. & Nam, Kiseok, 2018. "Corporate investment, short-term return reversal, and stock liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-83.
    15. Liew, Ping-Xin & Lim, Kian-Ping & Goh, Kim-Leng, 2018. "Foreign equity flows: Boon or bane to the liquidity of Malaysian stock market?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 161-181.
    16. Nagar, Venky & Schoenfeld, Jordan & Wellman, Laura, 2019. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on investor information asymmetry and management disclosures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 36-57.
    17. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2007. "Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1783-1831, November.
    18. Tarun Chordia & Jianfeng Hu & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Qing Tong, 2019. "Order Flow Volatility and Equity Costs of Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1520-1551, April.
    19. Saad, Mohsen & Samet, Anis, 2020. "Collectivism and commonality in liquidity," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 137-162.
    20. Lischewski, Judith & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2012. "Size, value and liquidity. Do They Really Matter on an Emerging Stock Market?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 8-25.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity; Politics; Information asymmetry; Economic policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:38:y:2018:i:c:p:1-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.