This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Pedro Santa-Clara (The Anderson School, University of California, Los Angeles)
Rossen Valkanov (The Anderson School, University of California, Los Angeles)
Abstract

The excess return in the stock market is higher under Democratic than Republican presidencies: 9 percent for the value-weighted and 16 percent for the equal-weighted portfolio. The difference comes from higher real stock returns and lower real interest rates, is statistically significant, and is robust in subsamples. The difference in returns is not explained by business-cycle variables related to expected returns, and is not concentrated around election dates. There is no difference in the riskiness of the stock market across presidencies that could justify a risk premium. The difference in returns through the political cycle is therefore a puzzle. Copyright (c) 2003 by the American Finance Association.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=jofi&volume=58&issue=5&year=2003&part=null
File Format: text/html
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 58 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 1841-1872
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:5:p:1841-1872

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.afajof.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.afajof.org/membership/join.asp

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections," Working Paper Series 2006-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz, 2006. "Stock market volatiltity around national elections," MPRA Paper 302, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz, 2006. "Political orientation of government and stock market returns," MPRA Paper 307, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mattozzi, Andrea., 2005. "Policy uncertainty, electoral securities and redistribution," Working Papers 1229, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2007. "Politics and Volatility," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-10, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Politics and the Stock Market — Evidence from Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1203, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mattozzi, Andrea, 2004. "Can we insure against political uncertainty? Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market," Working Papers 1207, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  8. Steven A. Block & Burkhard N. Schrage & Paul M. Vaaler, 2003. "DEMOCRACY’S SPREAD: Elections and Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-575, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  9. Sean D. Campbell & Canlin Li, 2004. "Alternative estimates of the presidential premium," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-69, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Steven Block & Burkhard N. Schrage & Paul M. Vaaler, 2003. "Democratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 546, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  11. Sean Campbell & Canlin Li, 2003. "Per Capita Consumption, Luxury Consumption and the Presidential Puzzle: A Partial Resolution," Working Papers 2003-18, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You may want to explore EconPapers, which displays the same data as IDEAS in a different way.

This page was last updated on 2008-8-28.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.