Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Dynamics Of Unemployment And Inflation In Western Europe: Solution By The 1- D Boundary Elements Method

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ivan O. KITOV
  • Oleg I. KITOV

Abstract

Using an analog of the boundary elements method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in labor force. Originally, the model linking unemployment to inflation and labor force was developed and successfully tested for Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the United States. Autoregressive properties of neither of these variables are used to predict their evolution. In this sense, the model is a self-consistent and completely deterministic one without any stochastic component (external shocks) except that associated with measurement errors and changes in measurement units. Nevertheless, the model explains between ~65% and ~95% of the variability in unemployment and inflation. For Italy, the rate of unemployment is predicted at a time horizon of nine (!) years with pseudo out-of-sample root-mean-square forecasting error of 0.55% for the period between 1973 and 2006. One can expect that the unemployment will be growing since 2008 and will reach ~11.4% [±0.6 %] near 2012. After 2012, unemployment in Italy will start to descend.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.jaes.reprograph.ro/articles/summer2010/KitovI_KitovO.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova in its journal Journal of Applied Economic Sciences.

Volume (Year): 5 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2(12)/Summer2010 ()
Pages: 94-113

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:5:y:2010:i:2(12)_spring2010:p:103

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www2.spiruharet.ro/facultati/facultate.php?id=14
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: unemployment; inflation; labor force; boundary integral method; prediction; Western Europe;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Kitov, Ivan & KItov, Oleg, 2013. "Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?," MPRA Paper 50239, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labour force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Austria," Papers 1310.1786, arXiv.org.
  3. Kitov, Ivan & KItov, Oleg, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan," MPRA Paper 49388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2011. "The Australian Phillips curve and more," Papers 1102.1851, arXiv.org.
  5. Oleg KITOV & Ivan KITOV, 2012. "A Win-Win Monetary Policy In Canada," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(6(18)/ Su), pages 160-176.
  6. Oleg Kitov & Ivan Kitov, 2011. "Inflation and unemployment in Switzerland: from 1970 to 2050," Papers 1102.5405, arXiv.org.
  7. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2012. "Sustainable trends and periodicity in consumer price indices indicate that the era of low energy prices is approaching," MPRA Paper 43392, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:5:y:2010:i:2(12)_spring2010:p:103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Stefanescu).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.