Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Long-term linear trends in consumer price indices

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kitov, Ivan
  • Kitov, Oleg

Abstract

Headline CPI, core CPI and indices for various expenditure categories were analyzed. Long-term linear trends have been found in the difference between the core CPI and the headline CPI in the USA. Duration of these periods is different for positive (18 years) and negative (8 years) trends, and the trends change to opposite during some shorter time intervals of 2 to 4 years. The difference between the core CPI and the index for energy is similar to that between the core CPI and headline CPI. The index for energy will reach the core CPI in 2008, however. Then, one should not expect further increase in energy price beyond that dictated by the CPI. It is likely that oil price will be falling in absolute terms. The difference between the core CPI and the index for food also has two linear branches after 1980, but the slope of the current trend is weak and the difference will intercept zero line only in 2014. The difference between the core CPI and the housing index is characterized by an almost constant duration of negative and positive branches – approximately 11 years. The current period of negative slope in the difference will approach its turning point in 2008 or 2009 and is characterized by very high volatility. The next trend has to be positive, i.e. the housing index will be growing at a lower rate than the headlining CPI. The difference for the transportation index had a longer period of positive slope – between 1980 and 2004. During this period the difference reached the level of 30 units of index. Currently, a turning period is observed and a negative slope is developing. The difference related to price indices allows to accurately predicting the evolution of relevant stock market indices.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6900/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6900.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 27 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6900

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: CPI; core CPI; expenditure categories; price index; stock market index;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Canada," MPRA Paper 5015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov & Svetlana A. Dolinskaya, 2008. "Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test," Papers 0811.0896, arXiv.org.
  3. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Germany," MPRA Paper 5088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Sustainable trends in producer price indices," MPRA Paper 15194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ivan Kitov, 2012. "Cross comparison and modelling of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Franklin Resources," Papers 1212.1661, arXiv.org.
  3. Ivan O. Kitov, 2009. "What is the best firm size to invest?," Papers 0903.0286, arXiv.org.
  4. Ivan O. Kitov, 2010. "Modeling share prices of banks and bankrupts," Papers 1003.2692, arXiv.org.
  5. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting the price index for jewelry and jewelry products: 2009 to 2016," MPRA Paper 15875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2010. "Crude oil and motor fuel: Fair price revisited," Papers 1005.0051, arXiv.org.
  7. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Modelling of selected S&P 500 share prices," MPRA Paper 15862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2012. "Sustainable trends and periodicity in consumer price indices indicate that the era of low energy prices is approaching," MPRA Paper 43392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Kitov, Ivan, 2012. "ConocoPhillips’ share price model revisited," MPRA Paper 38261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil stock price," MPRA Paper 15334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "A fair price for motor fuel in the United States," MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "PPI of durable and nondurable goods: 1985-2016," MPRA Paper 15874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Predicting share price of energy companies: June-September 2009," MPRA Paper 15863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting gold ores price," MPRA Paper 15873, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6900. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.