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The anti-Phillips curve

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  • Kitov, Ivan

Abstract

There is no Phillips curve in the United States, i.e. unemployment does not drive inflation at any time horizon. There is a statistically robust anti-Phillips curve - inflation leads unemployment by 10 quarters. Apparently, the anti-Phillips curve would be the conventional one, if the time would flow in the opposite direction. Several tests for cointegration do not reject the hypothesis that there exist a long-term equilibrium relation between inflation and unemployment in the US. The cointegrating relation between inflation and unemployment is not the proof of causality, however, and both variables are driven by the same external force. Also presented are some statistical evidences that there exist conventional Phillips curves in Germany and France, but there is no causality link between unemployment and inflation as well.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13641.

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Date of creation: 26 Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13641

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Keywords: the Phillips curve; inflation; unemployment; causality;

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References

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  1. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Canada," MPRA Paper 5015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
  3. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Germany," MPRA Paper 5088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  5. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov & Svetlana A. Dolinskaya, 2008. "Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test," Papers 0811.0896, arXiv.org.
  6. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2008. "Comprehensive Macro Ï¿½ Model For The Us Economy," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(4(6)_Wint).
  7. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Counties," Mechonomics mechonomics7, Socionet.
  8. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2008. "Inflation: Do Expectations Trump the Gap?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 85-116, December.
  9. Ivan, Kitov, 2006. "Exact prediction of inflation in the USA," MPRA Paper 2735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA," MPRA Paper 2734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan," MPRA Paper 5464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan," Papers 1309.1757, arXiv.org.

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