Inflation and unemployment in Switzerland: from 1970 to 2050
AbstractAn empirical model is presented linking inflation and unemployment rate to the change in the level of labour force in Switzerland. The involved variables are found to be cointegrated and we estimate lagged linear deterministic relationships using the method of cumulative curves, a simplified version of the 1D Boundary Elements Method. The model yields very accurate predictions of the inflation rate on a three year horizon. The results are coherent with the models estimated previously for the US, Japan, France and other developed countries and provide additional validation of our quantitative framework based solely on labour force. Finally, given the importance of inflation forecasts for the Swiss monetary policy, we present a prediction extended into 2050 based on official projections of the labour force level.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28887.
Date of creation: 14 Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Inflation; Unemployment; Labour force; Forecasting; Switzerland;
Other versions of this item:
- Oleg Kitov & Ivan Kitov, 2011. "Inflation and unemployment in Switzerland: from 1970 to 2050," Papers 1102.5405, arXiv.org.
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-02-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2011-02-26 (Forecasting)
- NEP-LAB-2011-02-26 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-02-26 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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