Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Comparing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time Series Models to Forecast Inflation

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve, as a structural model of inflation dynamics, has mostly been used to explain past inflation developments, but has hardly been used for forecasting purposes. We propose a method of forecasting inflation based on the present-value formulation of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve. To evaluate the forecasting performance of this model we compare it with forecasts generated from time series models at different forecast horizons. As state-of-the-art time series models used in inflation forecasting we employ a Bayesian VAR, a traditional VAR and a simple autoregressive model. We find that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve delivers relatively more accurate forecasts compared to the other models for longer forecast horizons (more than 3 months) while they are outperformed by the time series models only for the very short forecast horizon. This is consistent with the finding in the literature that structural models are able to outperform time series models only for longer horizons.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.oenb.at/dms/oenb/Publikationen/Volkswirtschaft/Working-Papers/2008/Working-Paper-148/fullversion/wp148_tcm16-92824.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 403 Forbidden. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Markus Knell and Helmut Stix)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 148.

as in new window
Length: 37
Date of creation: 30 Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:148

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7205
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7299
Email:
Web page: http://www.oenb.at/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Email:

Related research

Keywords: New Keynesian Phillips Curve; Inflation Forecasting; Forecast Evaluation; Bayesian VAR;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 1026, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
  4. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," MPRA Paper 11360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Adolfson, Malin & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 190, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2006.
  6. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Herve, 2005. "Testing for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Additional international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-550, May.
  7. Fabio Rumler, 2005. "Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 102, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  8. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 0265, European Central Bank.
  10. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  11. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
  12. Fabio Rumler & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2008. "Do Aggregate Demand Factors Influence Current Inflation Developments?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 10–82.
  13. Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  14. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2001. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 44, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  15. Caesar Lack, 2006. "Forecasting Swiss inflation using VAR models," Economic Studies 2006-02, Swiss National Bank.
  16. Kurmann, Andre, 2005. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the fit of a new Keynesian pricing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1119-1134, September.
  17. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 463-473, December.
  18. Campbell Leith & Jim Malley, 2002. "Estimated Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curves for the G7," Working Papers 2002_8, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  19. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  20. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
  21. Baumgartner, Josef & Glatzer, Ernst & Rumler, Fabio & Stiglbauer, Alfred, 2005. "How frequently do consumer prices change in Austria? Evidence from micro CPI data," Working Paper Series 0523, European Central Bank.
  22. Canova, Fabio, 2007. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts: Random Walk, Phillips Curve Or What Else?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 1-30, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Dandan Liu & Dennis Jansen, 2011. "Does a factor Phillips curve help? An evaluation of the predictive power for U.S. inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 807-826, May.
  2. Kitov, Ivan, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labour force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Austria," MPRA Paper 49700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Markus Knell and Helmut Stix).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.