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Inflation, unemployment, and labour force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Austria

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  • Kitov, Ivan

Abstract

We model the rate of inflation and unemployment in Austria since the early 1960s within the Phillips/Fisher framework. The change in labour force is the driving force representing economic activity in the Phillips curve. For Austria, this macroeconomic variable was first tested as a predictor of inflation and unemployment in 2005 with the involved time series ended in 2003. Here we extend all series by nine new readings available since 2003 and re-estimate the previously estimated relationships between inflation, unemployment, and labour force. As before, a structural break is allowed in these relationships, which is related to numerous changes in definitions in the 1980s. The break year is estimated together with other model parameters by the Boundary Element Method with the LSQ fitting between observed and predicted integral curves. The precision of inflation prediction, as described by the root-mean-square (forecasting) error is by 20% to 70% better than that estimated by AR(1) model. The estimates of model forecasting error are available for those time series where the change in labour force leads by one (the GDP deflator) or two (CPI) years. For the whole period between 1965 and 2012 as well as for the intervals before and after the structural break (1986 for all inflation models) separately, our model is superior to the naïve forecasting, which in turn, is not worse than any other forecasting model. The level of statistical reliability and the predictive power of the link between inflation and labour force imply that the National Bank of Austria does not control inflation and unemployment beyond revisions to definitions. The labour force projection provided by Statistic Austria allows foreseeing inflation at a forty-year horizon: the rate of CPI inflation will hover around 1.3% and the GDP deflator will likely sink below zero between 2018 and 2034.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 49700.

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Date of creation: 09 Sep 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49700

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Keywords: inflation; unemployment; labour force; Phillips curve; forecasting; monetary policy; Austria;

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References

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  1. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  3. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  4. Fabio Rumler & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2008. "Comparing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time Series Models to Forecast Inflation," Working Papers 148, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  5. repec:wfo:wquart:y:2012:i:4:p:265-272 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Josef Baumgartner, 2002. "The Economic Forecasts of WIFO and IHS: An Analysis for the 1980s and 1990s," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 75(11), pages 701-716, November.
  8. Fabio Rumler, 2007. "Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 427-451, September.
  9. Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2011. "The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 317-337, April.
  10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  13. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy become more Efficient? a Cross-Country Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 408-433, 04.
  14. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2010. "Dynamics Of Unemployment And Inflation In Western Europe: Solution By The 1- D Boundary Elements Method," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 94-113.
  15. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
  17. Friedrich Fritzer & Ernest Gnan & Walpurga Köhler-Töglhofer & Fabio Rumler & Alfred Stiglbauer, 2008. "Current Inflation Developments in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 20–47.
  18. Ivan KITOV & Oleg KITOV, 2012. "Modeling Unemployment And Employment In Advanced Economies: Okun’S Law With A Structural Break," Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(1), pages 26-41, June.
  19. Christian Ragacs & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Austria from 1998 to 2006," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 29–49.
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Cited by:
  1. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?," Papers 1311.1097, arXiv.org.

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