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The Australian Phillips curve and more

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  • Kitov, Ivan
  • Kitov, Oleg

Abstract

A quantitative model is presented linking the rate of inflation and unemployment to the change in the level of labor force. The link between the involved variables is a linear one with all coefficients of individual and generalized models obtained empirically. To achieve the best fit between measured and predicted time series cumulative curves are used as a simplified version of the 1-D boundary elements method. All models for Australia are similar to those obtained for the US, France, Japan and other developed countries and thus validate the concept and related quantitative model.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28762/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28762.

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Date of creation: 09 Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28762

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Keywords: inflation; unemployment; labor force; modeling; Australia;

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  1. Daniel Buncic & Martin Melecky, 2008. "An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 1-16, 03.
  2. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov & Svetlana A. Dolinskaya, 2008. "Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA," Papers 0811.0892, arXiv.org.
  3. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, 06.
  4. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
  5. Gunnar Bardsen & Stan Hurn & Zoe McHugh, 2011. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," NCER Working Paper Series 71, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  6. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  7. Jamie Hall & Jarkko P. Jääskelä, 2011. "Inflation Volatility and Forecast Accuracy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 44(4), pages 404-417, December.
  8. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2010. "Dynamics Of Unemployment And Inflation In Western Europe: Solution By The 1- D Boundary Elements Method," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 94-113.
  9. David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2010. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Neil Dias Karunaratne & Ramprasad Bhar, 2010. "Regime-Shifts & Post-Float Inflation Dynamics In Australia," Discussion Papers Series 405, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  12. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
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