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The Australian Phillips curve and more

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  • Kitov, Ivan
  • Kitov, Oleg

Abstract

A quantitative model is presented linking the rate of inflation and unemployment to the change in the level of labor force. The link between the involved variables is a linear one with all coefficients of individual and generalized models obtained empirically. To achieve the best fit between measured and predicted time series cumulative curves are used as a simplified version of the 1-D boundary elements method. All models for Australia are similar to those obtained for the US, France, Japan and other developed countries and thus validate the concept and related quantitative model.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28762/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28762.

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Date of creation: 09 Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28762

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Keywords: inflation; unemployment; labor force; modeling; Australia;

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
  3. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2010. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," CREATES Research Papers, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus 2010-02, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  4. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales 2008-26, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  5. Jamie Hall & Jarkko P. Jääskelä, 2011. "Inflation Volatility and Forecast Accuracy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 44(4), pages 404-417, December.
  6. Neil Dias Karunaratne & Ramprasad Bhar, 2010. "Regime-Shifts & Post-Float Inflation Dynamics In Australia," Discussion Papers Series, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia 405, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  7. David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2010. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia rdp2010-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2010. "Dynamics Of Unemployment And Inflation In Western Europe: Solution By The 1- D Boundary Elements Method," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 94-113.
  9. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov & Svetlana Dolinskaya, 2007. "Inflation as a Function of Labor Force Change Rate: Cointegration Test for the USA," Mechonomics, Socionet mechonomics3, Socionet.
  10. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  11. Daniel Buncic & Martin Melecky, 2008. "An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 1-16, 03.
  12. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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