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The Australian Phillips curve and more

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  • Ivan Kitov
  • Oleg Kitov

Abstract

A quantitative model is presented linking the rate of inflation and unemployment to the change in the level of labor force. The link between the involved variables is a linear one with all coefficients of individual and generalized models obtained empirically. To achieve the best fit between measured and predicted time series cumulative curves are used as a simplified version of the 1-D boundary elements method. All models for Australia are similar to those obtained for the US, France, Japan and other developed countries and thus validate the concept and related quantitative model.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.1851
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1102.1851.

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Date of creation: Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1102.1851

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  1. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2010. "Dynamics Of Unemployment And Inflation In Western Europe: Solution By The 1- D Boundary Elements Method," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 94-113.
  2. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," Discussion Papers 2008-26, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  3. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2007. "An estimated New Keynesian policy model for Australia," MPRA Paper 4138, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 6126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2010. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," CREATES Research Papers 2010-02, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  6. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  7. David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2010. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Jamie Hall & Jarkko Jääskelä, 2009. "Inflation Volatility and Forecast Accuracy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2009-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  9. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov & Svetlana Dolinskaya, 2007. "Inflation as a Function of Labor Force Change Rate: Cointegration Test for the USA," Mechonomics mechonomics3, Socionet.
  10. Neil Dias Karunaratne & Ramprasad Bhar, 2010. "Regime-Shifts & Post-Float Inflation Dynamics In Australia," Discussion Papers Series 405, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
  12. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
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