Potential links between inflation, (t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Germany have been examined. There exists a consistent (conventional) Phillips curve despite some changes in monetary policy. This Phillips curve is characterized by a negative relation between inflation and unemployment with the latter leading the former by one year: UE(t-1) = -1.50(t) + 0.116. Effectively, growing unemployment has resulted in decreasing inflation since 1971, i.e. for the period where GDP deflator observations are available. The relation between inflation and unemployment is statistically reliable with R2=0.86, where unemployment spans the range from 0.01 to 0.12 and inflation, as represented by GDP deflator, varies from -0.01 to 0.07. A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force has been also obtained for Germany. Changes in labor force level are leading unemployment and inflation by five and six year, respectively. Therefore this generalized relationship provides a natural prediction of inflation at a six-year horizon, as based upon current estimates of labor force level. The goodness-of-fit for the relationship is 0.87 for the period between 1971 and 2006, i.e. including the periods of high inflation and disinflation.
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number
5088.
Find related papers by JEL classification: J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
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