Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Germany

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kitov, Ivan

Abstract

Potential links between inflation, (t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Germany have been examined. There exists a consistent (conventional) Phillips curve despite some changes in monetary policy. This Phillips curve is characterized by a negative relation between inflation and unemployment with the latter leading the former by one year: UE(t-1) = -1.50(t) + 0.116. Effectively, growing unemployment has resulted in decreasing inflation since 1971, i.e. for the period where GDP deflator observations are available. The relation between inflation and unemployment is statistically reliable with R2=0.86, where unemployment spans the range from 0.01 to 0.12 and inflation, as represented by GDP deflator, varies from -0.01 to 0.07. A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force has been also obtained for Germany. Changes in labor force level are leading unemployment and inflation by five and six year, respectively. Therefore this generalized relationship provides a natural prediction of inflation at a six-year horizon, as based upon current estimates of labor force level. The goodness-of-fit for the relationship is 0.87 for the period between 1971 and 2006, i.e. including the periods of high inflation and disinflation.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5088/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5088.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 30 Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5088

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: inflation; unemployment; labor force; prediction; Germany;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Counties," Mechonomics mechonomics7, Socionet.
  2. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "The Japanese Economy," Mechonomics mechonomics6, Socionet.
  3. Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Comparing monetary policy reaction functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 645-662, September.
  4. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov & Svetlana A. Dolinskaya, 2008. "Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test," Papers 0811.0896, arXiv.org.
  5. Ulrich Fritsche & Jan Gottschalk, 2006. "The New Keynesian Model and the Long-run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does it hold for Germany?," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200601, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  6. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov & Svetlana A. Dolinskaya, 2008. "Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA," Papers 0811.0892, arXiv.org.
  7. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Exact Prediction of Inflation in the USA," Mechonomics mechonomics4, Socionet.
  8. Slacalek, Jirka & Fritsche, Ulrich & Dovern, Jonas & Döpke, Jörg, 2005. "European inflation expectations dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Canada," MPRA Paper 5015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Ivan O. Kitov, 2006. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in the USA," Working Papers 28, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2008. "Long-term linear trends in consumer price indices," MPRA Paper 6900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "The anti-Phillips curve," MPRA Paper 13641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan," MPRA Paper 5464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ivan O. Kitov, 2010. "Inflation and unemployment in Japan: from 1980 to 2050," Papers 1002.0277, arXiv.org.
  5. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "A fair price for motor fuel in the United States," MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.