Inflation and unemployment in Japan: from 1980 to 2050
AbstractThe evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of disinflation in the 1990s and a deflationary period in the 2000s. In Japan, there exists a statistically reliable (R2=0.68) Phillips curve, which is characterized by a negative relation between inflation and unemployment and their synchronous evolution: UE(t) = -0.94p(t) + 0.045. Effectively, growing unemployment has resulted in decreasing inflation since 1982. A linear and lagged generalized relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force has been also obtained for Japan: p(t) = 2.8*dLF(t)/LF(t) + 0.9*UE(t) - 0.0392. Labor force projections allow a prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan: CPI inflation will be negative (between -0.5% and -1% per year) during the next 40 years. Unemployment will increase from ~4.0% in 2010 to 5.3% in 2050.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1002.0277.
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-02-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-LAB-2010-02-13 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-02-13 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ivan O. Kitov, 2006. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in the USA," Working Papers 28, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
- Kamada, Koichiro, 2004.
"Real-Time Estimation of the Output Gap in Japan and its Usefulness for Inflation Forecasting and Policymaking,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2004,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Kamada, Koichiro, 2005. "Real-time estimation of the output gap in Japan and its usefulness for inflation forecasting and policymaking," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-332, December.
- Kitov, Ivan, 2006.
"The Japanese economy,"
2737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ivan Kitov, 2007.
"Exact Prediction of Inflation in the USA,"
- Kitov, Ivan, 2006.
"Real GDP per capita in developed countries,"
2738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Germany," MPRA Paper 5088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2012. "Sustainable trends and periodicity in consumer price indices indicate that the era of low energy prices is approaching," MPRA Paper 43392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.