Inflation and unemployment in Japan: from 1980 to 2050
AbstractThe evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of disinflation in the 1990s and a deflationary period in the 2000s. In Japan, there exists a statistically reliable (R2=0.68) Phillips curve, which is characterized by a negative relation between inflation and unemployment and their synchronous evolution: UE(t) = -0.94p(t) + 0.045. Effectively, growing unemployment has resulted in decreasing inflation since 1982. A linear and lagged generalized relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force has been also obtained for Japan: p(t) = 2.8*dLF(t)/LF(t) + 0.9*UE(t) - 0.0392. Labor force projections allow a prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan: CPI inflation will be negative (between -0.5% and -1% per year) during the next 40 years. Unemployment will increase from ~4.0% in 2010 to 5.3% in 2050.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1002.0277.
Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Web page: http://arxiv.org/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-02-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-LAB-2010-02-13 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-02-13 (Macroeconomics)
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