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The driving force of labor force participation in developed countries

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  • Kitov, Ivan
  • Kitov, Oleg

Abstract

The evolution of labor force participation rate is modeled using a lagged linear function of real economic growth, as expressed by GDP per capita. For the U.S., our model predicts at a two-year horizon with RMSFE of 0.28% for the period between 1965 and 2007. Larger part of the deviation between predicted and measured LFP is explained by artificial dislocations in measured time series induced by major revisions to the CPS methodology in 1979 and 1989. Similar models have been developed for Japan, the UK, France, Italy, Canada, and Sweden.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8677.

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Date of creation: 08 May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8677

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Keywords: labor force participation; real GDP per capita; prediction;

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  1. Anne E. Polivka, 1996. "Data Watch: The Redesigned Current Population Survey," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 169-180, Summer.
  2. Veracierto, Marcelo, 2008. "On the cyclical behavior of employment, unemployment and labor force participation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1143-1157, September.
  3. Bruce Fallick & Jonathan Pingle, 2007. "The effect of population aging on aggregate labor supply in the United States," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, number 52.
  4. Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter, 2006. "Changes in Labor Force Participation in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 27-46, Summer.
  5. Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2004. "Employment growth and labor force participation: how many jobs are enough?," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2004-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. Daniel Aaronson & Kyung-Hong Park & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2007. "Explaining the decline in teen labor force participation," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan.
  7. Stephanie Aaronson & Bruce Fallick & Andrew Figura & Jonathan Pingle & William Wascher, 2006. "The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(1), pages 69-154.
  8. John Haltiwanger & Marilyn E. Manser & Robert Topel, 1998. "Labor Statistics Measurement Issues," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number halt98-1, October.
  9. Anne E. Polivka & Stephen M. Miller, 1998. "The CPS after the Redesign: Refocusing the Economic Lens," NBER Chapters, in: Labor Statistics Measurement Issues, pages 249-289 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2005. "What’s up with the decline in female labor force participation?," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2005-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Daniel Aaronson & Kyung-Hong Park & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2006. "The decline in teen labor force participation," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 2-18.
  12. Haveman, Robert & de Jong, Philip & Wolfe, Barbara, 1991. "Disability Transfers and the Work Decision of Older Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 939-49, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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