The driving force of labor force participation in developed countries
AbstractThe evolution of labor force participation rate is modeled using a lagged linear function of real economic growth, as expressed by GDP per capita. For the U.S., our model predicts at a two-year horizon with RMSFE of 0.28% for the period between 1965 and 2007. Larger part of the deviation between predicted and measured LFP is explained by artificial dislocations in measured time series induced by major revisions to the CPS methodology in 1979 and 1989. Similar models have been developed for Japan, the UK, France, Italy, Canada, and Sweden.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8677.
Date of creation: 08 May 2008
Date of revision:
labor force participation; real GDP per capita; prediction;
Other versions of this item:
- Ivan O. KITOV, 2008. "The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 203-222.
- Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "The driving force of labor force participation in developed countries," Working Papers 90, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
- D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
- C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-05-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2008-05-10 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2008-05-10 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Julie Hotchkiss, 2005.
"Employment growth and labor force participation: how many jobs are enough?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 1-13.
- Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2004. "Employment growth and labor force participation: how many jobs are enough?," Working Paper 2004-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- John Haltiwanger & Marilyn E. Manser & Robert Topel, 1998. "Labor Statistics Measurement Issues," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number halt98-1, December.
- Stephanie Aaronson & Bruce Fallick & Andrew Figura & Jonathan Pingle & William Wascher, 2006. "The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(1), pages 69-154.
- Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter, 2006. "Changes in Labor Force Participation in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 27-46, Summer.
- repec:fip:fedbmo:2007teopaoalsitu is not listed on IDEAS
- Daniel Aaronson & Kyung-Hong Park & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2007. "Explaining the decline in teen labor force participation," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan.
- Daniel Aaronson & Kyung-Hong Park & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2006. "The decline in teen labor force participation," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 2-18.
- Haveman, Robert & de Jong, Philip & Wolfe, Barbara, 1991. "Disability Transfers and the Work Decision of Older Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 939-49, August.
- Anne E. Polivka & Stephen M. Miller, 1998. "The CPS after the Redesign: Refocusing the Economic Lens," NBER Chapters, in: Labor Statistics Measurement Issues, pages 249-289 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anne E. Polivka, 1996. "Data Watch: The Redesigned Current Population Survey," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 169-180, Summer.
- Veracierto, Marcelo, 2008.
"On the cyclical behavior of employment, unemployment and labor force participation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1143-1157, September.
- Marcelo Veracierto, 2002. "On the cyclical behavior of employment, unemployment and labor force participation," Working Paper Series WP-02-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2005. "What’s up with the decline in female labor force participation?," Working Paper 2005-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.