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Real GDP Per Capita in Developed Countries

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  • Ivan Kitov

    ()
    (IDG RAS)

Abstract

Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components – a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest developed economies. Statistical analysis of 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2004 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual GDP per capita increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with potentially Levy distribution for far tails. Developing countries demonstrate the increment values far below the mean increment for the most developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Socionet in its series Mechonomics with number mechonomics5.

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Date of creation: 11 Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nos:tttehw:mechonomics5

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  1. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Ivan Kitov, 2005. "Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(11), pages A0.
  3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2005:i:11:p:a0 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Counties," Mechonomics mechonomics7, Socionet.
  2. Kitov, Ivan, 2012. "Why price inflation in developed countries is systematically underestimated," MPRA Paper 39059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov & Svetlana Dolinskaya, 2007. "Modeling Real GDP Per Capita in the USA: Cointegration Test," Mechonomics mechanomics1, Socionet.
  4. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "The Japanese Economy," Mechonomics mechonomics6, Socionet.
  5. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2012. "Real GDP per capita since 1870," Papers 1205.5671, arXiv.org.
  6. Hasan, Syed Akif & Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Osman, Mohammad, 2012. "Co-movements of consumption patterns of high and low involvement products," MPRA Paper 37659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Ivan O. Kitov, 2010. "Inflation and unemployment in Japan: from 1980 to 2050," Papers 1002.0277, arXiv.org.
  9. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Hasan, Syed Akif & Osman, Ms. Amber, 2012. "Do consumers buy bread and diamond with the same attachment?," MPRA Paper 45094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan," MPRA Paper 5464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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