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The Evolution Of Real Gdp Per Capita In Developed Countries

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  • Ivan O. KITOV

Abstract

The growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components � a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a constant numerator. Statistical analysis data from 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2007 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual increment of GDP per capita for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, and Italy. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend in annual increments. The fluctuations around relevant mean increments are characterized by practically normal distribution (with Levy tails). Developing countries demonstrate annual GDP per capita increments far below those for the studied developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova in its journal Journal of Applied Economic Sciences.

Volume (Year): 4 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2(8)_ Summer 2009 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:4:y:2009:i:2(8)_summer2009:61

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Web page: http://www2.spiruharet.ro/facultati/facultate.php?id=14
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Related research

Keywords: economic development; economic trend; business cycle; GDP per capita;

References

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  1. Ivan O. Kitov, 2006. "GDP growth rate and population," Working Papers 42, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  2. Durlauf,S.N. & Johnson,P.A. & Temple,J.R.W., 2004. "Growth econometrics," Working papers 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  3. Ivan O. Kitov, 2008. "Modeling the evolution of age-dependent Gini coefficient for personal incomes in the U.S. between 1967 and 2005," Working Papers 95, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  5. Jones, Charles I., 2005. "Growth and Ideas," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1063-1111 Elsevier.
  6. Galor, Oded, 2004. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 4581, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Ivan Kitov, 2005. "Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(11), pages A0.
  8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2005:i:11:p:a0 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "The Japanese Economy," Mechonomics mechonomics6, Socionet.
  10. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 2005. "Neoclassical Models of Endogenous Growth: The Effects of Fiscal Policy, Innovation and Fluctuations," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 13-65 Elsevier.
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Cited by:
  1. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2011. "Employment, unemployment and real economic growth," MPRA Paper 32404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2010. "S&P 500 returns revisited," Papers 1004.0213, arXiv.org.

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