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S&P 500 returns revisited

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  • Kitov, Ivan
  • Kitov, Oleg

Abstract

The predictions of the S&P 500 returns made in 2007 have been tested and the underlying models amended. The period between 2003 and 2008 should be described by the dependence of the S&P 500 stock market index on real GDP because the population pyramid was highly inaccurate. The 2008 trough and 2009 rally are well predicted by the original model, however. The rally will end in March/April 2010 and the S&P 500 level will be decreasing into 2011. This prediction should validate the model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21733.

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Date of creation: 29 Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21733

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Keywords: S&P 500; returns; prediction; population pyramid; GDP;

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  1. Ivan O. KITOV, 2010. "Predicting Real Economic Growth In France, Germany, New Zealand, And The United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(1(11)_Spr), pages 48-54.
  2. Ivan O. KITOV, 2009. "The Evolution Of Real Gdp Per Capita In Developed Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_ Sum).
  3. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov & Svetlana A. Dolinskaya, 2008. "Modelling real GDP per capita in the USA: cointegration test," Papers 0811.0490, arXiv.org.
  5. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2007. "Exact prediction of S&P 500 returns," MPRA Paper 6056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-42.
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