S&P 500 returns revisited
AbstractThe predictions of the S&P 500 returns made in 2007 have been tested and the underlying models amended. The period between 2003 and 2008 should be described by the dependence of the S&P 500 stock market index on real GDP because the population pyramid was highly inaccurate. The 2008 trough and 2009 rally are well predicted by the original model, however. The rally will end in March/April 2010 and the S&P 500 level will be decreasing into 2011. This prediction should validate the model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21733.
Date of creation: 29 Mar 2010
Date of revision:
S&P 500; returns; prediction; population pyramid; GDP;
Other versions of this item:JEL classification:
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2010-04-04 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-FOR-2010-04-04 (Forecasting)
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