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Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK

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  • Kitov, Ivan

Abstract

The growth rate of real GDP per capita is modelled and predicted at various time horizons for France, Germany, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The rate of growth is represented by a sum of two components – a monotonically decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in country-specific age population. The trend is an inverse function of real GDP per capita with constant numerator. Similar analysis was conducted for the USA and Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15503
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15503/1/MPRA_paper_15503.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivan Kitov, 2005. "GDP growth rate and population," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(9), pages 1.
    2. Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "Real GDP per capita in developed countries," MPRA Paper 2738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "The Japanese economy," MPRA Paper 2737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2009. "Modelling Real Gdp Per Capita In The Usa:Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(1(7)_ Spr).
    5. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ivan O. Kitov, 2009. "Does economics need a scientific revolution?," Papers 0904.0729, arXiv.org.
    7. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2008. "Economics needs a scientific revolution," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7217), pages 1181-1181, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real GDP per capita; modelling; prediction; population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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