Modelling Real Gdp Per Capita In The Usa:Cointegration Tests
AbstractA two-component model for the evolution of real GDP per capita in the United States is presented and tested. First component of the growth rate of GDP represents the growth trend and is inversely proportional to the attained level of real GDP per capita, with the nominator being constant through time. Second component is responsible for the fluctuations around the growth trend and is defined as a half of the growth rate of the number of 9-year-olds. This nonlinear relationship between the growth rate of real GDP per capita and the number of 9-year-olds in the US is tested for cointegration. For linearization of the problem, the population time series is predicted using the relationship. Both single year of age population time series, the measured and predicted one, are shown to be nonstationary and integrated of order 1 ï¿½ the original series have unit roots and their first differences have no unit root. The Engel-Granger procedure is applied to the difference of the measured and predicted time series and to the residuals of a linear regression. Both tests show the existence of a cointegrating relation. The Johansen test results in the cointegrating rank 1. Since the cointegrating relation between the measured and predicted number of 9-year-olds does exist, the VAR, VECM, and linear regression are used in estimation of the goodness of fit and root mean-square errors, (RMSE). The highest R2=0.95 and the lowermost RMSE is obtained in the VAR representation. The VECM provides consistent, statistically reliable, and significant estimates of the slope in the cointegrating relation. Econometrically, the tests for cointegration show that the deviations of real economic growth in the US from the growth trend, as defined by constant annual increment of real per capita GDP, are driven by the change in the number of 9-year-olds.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova in its journal Journal of Applied Economic Sciences.
Volume (Year): 4 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1(7)_ Spring 2009 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www2.spiruharet.ro/facultati/facultate.php?id=14
More information through EDIRC
real GDP per capita; population estimates; cointegration; VAR; VECM; USA;
Other versions of this item:
- Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov & Svetlana A. Dolinskaya, 2008. "Modelling real GDP per capita in the USA: cointegration test," Papers 0811.0490, arXiv.org.
- Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Modelling real GDP per capita in the USA: cointegration test," MPRA Paper 2739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov & Svetlana Dolinskaya, 2007. "Modeling Real GDP Per Capita in the USA: Cointegration Test," Mechonomics mechanomics1, Socionet.
- O42 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ivan O. Kitov, 2006.
"GDP growth rate and population,"
42, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
- Kitov, Ivan, 2006.
"Real GDP per capita in developed countries,"
2738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ivan, Kitov, 2006.
"Exact prediction of inflation in the USA,"
2735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carl Chiarella & S. Gao, 2002. "Type I Spurious Regression in Econometrics," Working Paper Series 114, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Ivan O. Kitov, 2005. "Modelling the overall personal income distribution in the USA from 1994 to 2002," Working Papers 07, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
- Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009.
"Modelling and predicting labor force productivity,"
15152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2010.
"S&P 500 returns revisited,"
- Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008.
"Exact prediction of S&P 500 returns,"
- Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2012.
"Real GDP per capita since 1870,"
- Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Stefanescu).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.