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Exact prediction of inflation in the USA

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Author Info
Ivan, Kitov

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Abstract

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force growth rate has been recently found for the USA. It accurately describes the period after the late 1950s with linear coefficient 4.0, intercept -0.03, and the lag of 2 years. The previously reported agreement between observed and predicted inflation is substantially improved by some simple measures removing the most obvious errors in the labor force time series. The labor force readings originally obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) website are corrected for step-like adjustments. Additionally, a half-year time shift between the inflation and the annual labor force readings is compensated. GDP deflator represents the inflation. Linear regression analysis demonstrates that the annual labor force growth rate used as a predictor explains almost 82% (R2=0.82) of the inflation variations between 1965 and 2002. Moving average technique applied to the annual time series results in a substantial increase in R2. It grows from 0.87 for two-year wide windows to 0.96 for four-year windows. Regression of cumulative curves is characterized by R2>0.999. This allows effective replacement of GDP deflation index by a “labor force growth” index. The linear and lagged relationship provides a precise forecast at the two-year horizon with root mean square forecasting error (RMSFE) as low as 0.008 (0.8%) for the entire period between 1965 and 2002. For the last 20 years, RMSFE is only 0.4%. Thus, the forecast methodology effectively outperforms any other forecasting technique reported in economic and financial literature. Moreover, further significant improvements in the forecasting accuracy are accessible through improvements in the labor force measurements in line with the US Census Bureau population estimates, which are neglected by BLS.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2735.

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Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2735

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Related research
Keywords: inflation labor force forecast the USA

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ivan O. Kitov, 2006. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in the USA," Working Papers 28, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kirstin Hubrich, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "The Japanese economy," MPRA Paper 2737, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ivan O. Kitov, 2006. "GDP growth rate and population," Working Papers 42, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ivan O. Kitov, 2005. "A model for microeconomic and macroeconomic development," Working Papers 05, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality. [Downloadable!]
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