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PPI of durable and nondurable goods: 1985-2016

Author

Listed:
  • Kitov, Ivan
  • Kitov, Oleg

Abstract

It was demonstrated that the difference between the PPI of durable and nondurable goods can be predicted at a several year horizon. The prediction consists of three steps. First, we show that the difference between producer price index for durable and nondurable goods is characterized by the presence of sustainable mid-term trends. Second, the evolution of the difference is predicted at a five to ten-year horizon as an extrapolation of the previously observed behavior. Third, considering the overall PPI to be practically constant over the next decade one can expect an overall decline in nondurables price and equivalent increase in that for durables.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "PPI of durable and nondurable goods: 1985-2016," MPRA Paper 15874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15874
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15874/1/MPRA_paper_15874.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivan O. Kitov, 2006. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in the USA," Working Papers 28, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    2. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting gold ores price," MPRA Paper 15873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil stock price," MPRA Paper 15334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA," MPRA Paper 2734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "A fair price for motor fuel in the United States," MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ivan, Kitov, 2006. "Exact prediction of inflation in the USA," MPRA Paper 2735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Sustainable trends in producer price indices," MPRA Paper 15194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ).
    9. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting the price index for jewelry and jewelry products: 2009 to 2016," MPRA Paper 15875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2010. "Crude oil and motor fuel: Fair price revisited," Papers 1005.0051, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    durable goods; nondurable goods; prediction; PPI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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