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International Evidence on the Efficacy of new-Keynesian Models of Inflation Persistence

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Author Info

  • Oleg Korenok

    ()
    (Department of Economics, VCU School of Business)

  • Stanislav Radchenko

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte)

  • Norman R. Swanson

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Rutgers University)

Abstract

In this paper we take an agnostic view of the Phillips curve debate, and carry out an empirical investigation of the relative and absolute efficacy of Calvo sticky price (SP), sticky information (SI), and sticky price with indexation models (SPI), with emphasis on their ability to mimic inflationary dynamics. In particular, we look at evidence for a group of 13 OECD countries, and we consider three alternative measures of inflationary pressure, including the output gap, labor share, and unemployment. We find that the Calvo SP and the SI models essentially perform no better than a strawman constant inflation model, when used to explain inflation persistence. Indeed, virtually all inflationary dynamics end up being captured by the residuals of the estimated versions of these models. We find that SPI model is preferable because it captures the type of strong inflationary persistence that has in the past characterized the economies of the countries in our sample. However, two caveats to this conclusion are that improvement in performance is driven mostly by the time series part of the model (i.e. lagged inflation) and that the SPI model overemphasizes inflationary persistence. Thus, there appears to be room for improvement via either modified versions of the above models, or via development of new models, that better "track" inflation persistence.

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File URL: http://www.people.vcu.edu/~okorenok/int_nk8.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by VCU School of Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0602.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vcu:wpaper:0602

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Keywords: sticky price; sticky information; empirical distribution; model selection;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko & Norman R. Swanson, 2010. "International evidence on the efficacy of new-Keynesian models of inflation persistence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 31-54.
  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  3. Oleg Korenok, 2005. "Empirical Comparison of Sticky Price and Sticky Information Models," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0510004, EconWPA.
  4. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 55-70.
  5. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-88, March.
  6. Goecke, Henry & Luhan, Wolfgang J. & Roos, Michael W.M., 2013. "Rational inattentiveness in a forecasting experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 80-89.
  7. Costantini, Mauro & Gunter, Ulrich & Kunst, Robert M., 2012. "Forecast Combination Based on Multiple Encompassing Tests in a Macroeconomic DSGE-VAR System," Economics Series, Institute for Advanced Studies 292, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  8. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy in the euro area in the presence of heterogeneity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-226, March.

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