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Real GDP per capita in developed countries

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  • Ivan O. Kitov

Abstract

Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest developed economies. Statistical analysis of 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2004 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual GDP per capita increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with potentially Levy distribution for far tails. Developing countries demonstrate the increment values far below the mean increment for the most developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0811.0889
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 0811.0889.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0811.0889

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  1. Kitov, Ivan, 2005. "Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system," MPRA Paper 2740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2005:i:11:p:a0 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Ivan Kitov, 2005. "Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(11), pages A0.
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Cited by:
  1. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "The Japanese Economy," Mechonomics mechonomics6, Socionet.
  2. Kitov, Ivan, 2012. "Why price inflation in developed countries is systematically underestimated," MPRA Paper 39059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2012. "Real GDP per capita since 1870," MPRA Paper 39021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Modelling real GDP per capita in the USA: cointegration test," MPRA Paper 2739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries," MPRA Paper 14557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan," MPRA Paper 5464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Ivan O. Kitov, 2010. "Inflation and unemployment in Japan: from 1980 to 2050," Papers 1002.0277, arXiv.org.
  9. Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif & Subhani, Dr. Muhammad Imtiaz & Osman, Mohammad, 2012. "Co-movements of consumption patterns of high and low involvement products," MPRA Paper 37659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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