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Real GDP per capita in developed countries

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Ivan O. Kitov

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Abstract

Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest developed economies. Statistical analysis of 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2004 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual GDP per capita increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with potentially Levy distribution for far tails. Developing countries demonstrate the increment values far below the mean increment for the most developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/0811.0889
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Quantitative Finance Papers with number 0811.0889.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0811.0889

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  2. Kitov, Ivan, 2005. "Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system," MPRA Paper 2740, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  1. repec:nos:tttehw:mechonomics6 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "The Japanese economy," MPRA Paper 2737, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries," MPRA Paper 14557, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan," MPRA Paper 5464, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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