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Real GDP per capita in developed countries

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Author Info
Kitov, Ivan

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Abstract

The growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components – a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a constant numerator. Statistical analysis data from 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2007 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual increment of GDP per capita for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, and Italy. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend in annual increments. The fluctuations around relevant mean increments are characterized by practically normal distribution (with Levy tails). Developing countries demonstrate annual GDP per capita increments far below those for the studied developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14450/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2738.

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Date of creation: 05 Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2738

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Related research
Keywords: economic development; economic trend; business cycle; GDP per capita;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kitov, Ivan, 2005. "Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system," MPRA Paper 2740, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "The Japanese economy," MPRA Paper 2737, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan," MPRA Paper 5464, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries," MPRA Paper 14557, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. repec:nos:tttehw:mechonomics6 is not listed on IDEAS
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