Real GDP per capita in developed countries
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest developed economies. Statistical analysis of 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2004 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual GDP per capita increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with potentially Levy distribution for far tails. Developing countries demonstrate the increment values far below the mean increment for the most developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates.
References listed on IDEAS
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- Ivan Kitov, 2005.
"Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system,"
AccessEcon, vol. 28(11), pages 1.
- Kitov, Ivan, 2005. "Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system," MPRA Paper 2740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ivan O. Kitov, 2008. "Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system," Papers 0811.1182, arXiv.org.
- Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Modeling the Transition from a Socialist to Capitalist Economic System," Mechonomics mechonomics9, Socionet.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2005:i:11:p:a0 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.