Inflation and unemployment in Japan: from 1980 to 2050
The evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of disinflation in the 1990s and a deflationary period in the 2000s. In Japan, there exists a statistically reliable (R2=0.68) Phillips curve, which is characterized by a negative relation between inflation and unemployment and their synchronous evolution: UE(t) = -0.94p(t) + 0.045. Effectively, growing unemployment has resulted in decreasing inflation since 1982. A linear and lagged generalized relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force has been also obtained for Japan: p(t) = 2.8*dLF(t)/LF(t) + 0.9*UE(t) - 0.0392. Labor force projections allow a prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan: CPI inflation will be negative (between -0.5% and -1% per year) during the next 40 years. Unemployment will increase from ~4.0% in 2010 to 5.3% in 2050.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Germany," MPRA Paper 5088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kamada, Koichiro, 2004.
"Real-Time Estimation of the Output Gap in Japan and its Usefulness for Inflation Forecasting and Policymaking,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2004,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Kamada, Koichiro, 2005. "Real-time estimation of the output gap in Japan and its usefulness for inflation forecasting and policymaking," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-332, December.
- Ivan Kitov, 2007.
"Exact Prediction of Inflation in the USA,"
- Ivan Kitov, 2007.
"The Japanese Economy,"
- Kitov, Ivan, 2006.
"Real GDP per capita in developed countries,"
2738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ivan O. Kitov, 2006. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in the USA," Working Papers 28, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1002.0277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.