Modelling Structural Breaks in the US, UK and Japanese Unemployment Rates
In this paper we use a general procedure to detect structural breaks at unknown points in time which allows for different orders of integration and deterministic components in each subsample (see Gil-Alana, 2006). First, we extend it to the non-linear case, and show by means of Monte Carlo experiments that the procedure performs well in a non-linear environment. Second, we apply it to test for breaks in the unemployment rate in the US, the UK and Japan. Our results shed some light on the empirical relevance of alternative unemployment theories for these countries. Specifically, a structuralist interpretation appears more appropriate for the US and Japan, whilst a hysteresis model accounts better for the UK experience (and also for the Japanese one in the second subsample). We interpret these findings in terms of different labour market features.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2009.
"Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks in U.S. Macro Dynamics,"
Faculty Working Papers
02/09, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Luis Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Fractional integration and structural breaks in U.S. macro dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 427-446, August.
- Steve Nickell & Jan van Ours, 2000.
"The Netherlands and the United Kingdom: a European unemployment miracle?,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 135-180, 04.
- Nickell, S.J. & van Ours, J.C., 1999. "The Netherlands and the United Kingdom : A European Unemployment Miracle?," Discussion Paper 1999-119, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
- Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Rolf TSCHERNIG & Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN, 1992.
"Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment,"
Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain)
1992044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, 06.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008.
"Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, 01.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana, . "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Faculty Working Papers 16/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A, 2002. "Unemployment Hysteresis in the US States and the EU: A Panel Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 95-103, April.
- Olivier J. Blanchard, 1986.
"Hysteresis and Unemployment,"
430, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000.
"The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
- Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
- Tom Doan, . "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1734. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.