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Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment



    (Universität München)


    (Universität München & CEPR, London)


The non-stationarity of many macroeconomic time-series has lead to an increased demand for economic models that are able to generate fragile equilibria. For instance, the natural unemployment rate is al- lowed to shift over time depending on past unemployment. Actually, many European unemployment series seem to exhibit a unit root or persistence. This view is questioned in the paper using German data on unemployment. A new class of time-series models, the fractionally integrated ARMA model, that allows the difference parameter to take real values, enables the researcher to separate long memory and short memory in the data. It is shown that using this approach the unit root hypothesis is rejected but unemployment exhibits long memory.

Suggested Citation

  • Rolf TSCHERNIG & Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN, 1992. "Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1992044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:1992044

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Boutahar, Mohamed & Mootamri, Imène & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2009. "A fractionally integrated exponential STAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 335-341, March.
    2. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2002. "A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 135-165, October.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha, 2016. "Testing unemployment theories: A multivariate long memory approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 95-112, May.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Modelling Structural Breaks In The Us, Uk And Japanese Unemployment Rates," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-10, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    6. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio, 2006. "New Revelations about Unemployment Persistence in Spain," Faculty Working Papers 10/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    7. Peijie Wang, 2003. "Cycles and Common Cycles in Property and Related Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 22-42.
    8. Mohamed Boutahar & Imene Mootamri & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2007. "An exponential FISTAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Working Papers halshs-00353836, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search


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